The “IMF” expects major effects of Trump fees on the world’s economies

The International Monetary Fund expected that the customs fees imposed by US President Donald Trump and the counter -measures taken by other countries will have a severe impact on global economic activity this year.

In a report, he spoke about reference expectations instead of its usual basic expectations, due to the complexity of the current stage and the speed of its change.

In reference to the difficult situation, the International Monetary Fund made it clear that it took into account the changes in customs duties until the fourth of April, without necessarily including mutual measures between Beijing and Washington.

The International Monetary Fund expected that global growth would reach 2.8% this year, representing a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from its previous estimates in January.

Control the global economic system

“We are entering a stage in which the global economic system is re -controlled, as we know it for 80 years,” said the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Pierre Olivier Gurinchas, during a press conference.
But besides the enormous increase in customs duties, it is uncertain for its weight on the economy, and if the situation continues the same, this will lead to a slowdown in global growth. “

Referring to the great impact of additional fees on global trade, the International Monetary Fund has become only 1.7% growth in the rate of trade in goods and services this year, while the expected growth was 3.2% just 3 months ago.

While the global economy is expected to avoid the recession in the near future, the impact of customs duties will be negative in all regions this year and next year, according to Gurinchas.

The risk of stagnation increased

The risk of stagnation increased sharply, both for the global economy or the United States in particular.
The International Monetary Fund is currently excluding the occurrence of this matter for the world’s largest economy, “because it was so far in a strong situation, the economy continues its growth, and the labor market is still strong, we were originally witnessing a slowdown before the imposition of customs duties, but this slowdown represents only 0.4 percentage points,” according to Gurinchas.