What are the expectations of American stocks on the next 100 days of the Trump era?

American stocks witnessed severe fluctuations during the first 100 days of President Donald Trump, as the “Standard & Poor’s 500” index recorded its worst performance since 1974, a decrease of about 8%, despite a short recovery period in early May, according to the “FX Street”.

Trump’s decisions shake the markets

Since the first day of taking office, Trump has sought to implement his promises to reshape the global trade rules, by imposing comprehensive customs duties on imports from most countries. The initial announcement of these fees on April 2 led to a sharp drop in the markets, as it entered the “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “Nasdaq” area of ​​technical decline.
But the markets soon witnessed a recovery after the administration announced temporarily suspending customs duties for 90 days, which opened the door to possible trade negotiations, and led to a series of gains that spanned nine days until May 2.
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What is waiting for the markets in the coming 100 days?

Despite the temporary calm, the state of anticipation is still controlling investors, especially in the absence of official indicators on the progress of commercial negotiations with partners such as India and Japan, and the escalation of tensions with China, which responded by imposing cumulative fees on American goods at a rate of 125%.
On his part, Trump raised the fees on China’s imports to 145%, which led to a almost complete stopping of trade between the two largest economies in the world, despite the hints of Chinese media to the possibility of starting new talks.

Warnings of extensive economic repercussions

Several companies have made warnings about the negative repercussions of the return of customs duties, noting the possibilities of high prices, job hairstyles, and the slowdown in the economy. Analysts also expected an imminent economic recession if commercial negotiations did not succeed in curbing protectionist policies.
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Has the recession already started?

In the first quarter of 2025, the US gross domestic product shrinkled by 0.3%, although some economists attributed this decline to an increase in imports preceded the implementation of the fees. On the other hand, the labor market data for the month of April came positive, as the unemployment rate stabilized at 4.2%, which reduced some concerns.
However, the repetition of the gross domestic product will mean entering the economy in a “technical recession”, with the emergence of weaknesses in the spending of consumers.

The threat of inflationary stagnation waving on the horizon

Economists warn of a worse scenario of inflationary stagnation, as growth declines while inflation remains high, restricting the ability of the federal reserve to reduce interest rates without igniting a new inflationary wave.

A future fraught with fluctuations

Despite the recent gains of shares, the economic conditions are still unstable, and there are no guarantees with the end of commercial tensions soon. In this context, investors are advised to maintain long -term investment strategies, as historical data shows that extended investments give greater opportunities to achieve positive returns