Urgent| The fall of Kabul and Damascus is a defeat for America and Russia… and the beneficiary is one
The common denominator in the Taliban movement’s control of the Afghan capital, Kabul, on August 16, 2021, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, on December 8, over the Syrian capital, Damascus, is that the armies of the two countries, the first supported by the United States of America and NATO, and the second supported by the Russian Federation And Iran collapsed without a fight.
Which raises the question: What happened in both cases? How did things go after controlling the capitals of those two countries? After those groups known for violence and killing spread their influence over Syria and Afghanistan, we did not see scenes of violence that amounted to massacres or that one party defeated another in a war. This makes us certain that there were deals concluded in both cases. The military in these two countries sold the honor of swearing an oath and handing over the country to Islamist groups that do not recognize modern-day governance systems, by holding presidential elections. And parliamentary.
Russia did it with Kabul and America rushed to Damascus
And on the basis of The enemy of my enemy is my friend, between the United States and the Russian Federation On Friday, the American administration sent Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Liff to Damascus and meet with the Commander-in-Chief of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who demonstrated his hypocrisy by meeting this woman with a bare head and face. He celebrated by issuing pictures of each of them alone, more hypocritical, to public opinion around the world.
The Russian Federation had preceded the United States by working on the rule of The enemy of my enemy is my friend
strong>, when it allowed regular visits to the leaders of The Taliban to Russia, despite their presence on the Kremlin’s list of banned terrorist organizations.
Relations between Moscow and the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” deepened. Since February 2022, when Russia launched its large-scale attack on Ukraine, strong anti-American sentiment in both Kabul and Moscow offers a commonality.
However, in economic terms, Russia’s domestic influence is limited and incomparable. With the influence of major regional players such as Pakistan or China.
During the first period of Taliban rule from 1996 to 2001, Russian officials were strongly critical of The extremist Islamic regime.
The Kremlin was particularly angry at the Taliban’s recognition of Chechnya’s declaration of independence, while the bloody conflict was still raging in the far south of the Russian Federation.
This was a major factor in the decision of then young Russian President Vladimir Putin to support the US-led military operation against the Taliban.
After Just two days after the fall of Kabul, Russian Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov became the first foreign diplomat to meet publicly with Taliban officials.
But since then, two decades have passed, and the world has changed, When the Taliban retook Kabul without resistance on August 15, 2021, the ambassadors of Western countries quickly evacuated their staff and hastily burned secret documents, while the Russian embassy in Afghanistan remained unaffected and did not No one needed to evacuate.
Just two days after the fall of Kabul, Russian Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov became the first foreign diplomat to meet publicly with Taliban leaders.
At the same time, the Russian embassy, which had already made progress with the Taliban, published a letter describing the escape of ousted Afghan President Ashraf Ghani as “shameful,” and accused him of By fleeing Kabul in cars full of cash.
By the time the Taliban marched victoriously into the capital, Moscow had already established close contacts with the Afghan movement, and even before that The “Moscow Formula” talks were It takes place in the Russian capital between representatives of the former republic and the new emirate.
At a time when relations between Russia and the United States were already steadily deteriorating, this helped strengthen Moscow’s perception despite the military presence of the Soviet Union – the predecessor of the Russian Federation – in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, which was easily forgotten.
In the second half of the twentieth century, the Soviet Union was the main foreign actor in the country. Between the 1950s and 1980s, the Soviets participated in Development of 130 Afghan industrial and infrastructure projects – from airports to irrigation systems.
And yet, on the streets of Kabul we often find equipment Rusty cars are reminiscent of bygone Eastern Bloc years, while the Russian language is still widely spoken among older Afghans.
In terms of soft power, Russia has a limited local presence in Afghanistan, but this flourishing era of Soviet influence is long gone. Today, young Afghans who dream of emigrating – in the face of high unemployment and a deteriorating economy – are more likely to set their sights on the United States rather than To Russia, which is the alternative option.
Moreover, Russia is by no means an easy choice for Afghan youth: obtaining student visas requires effort Major bureaucratic efforts, as well as reports of drone attacks on the Russian capital, reduce Russia’s appeal to war-weary migrants.
And even In terms of soft power, Russia has a limited local presence in Afghanistan.
There are no Russian-led educational programs or humanitarian aid schemes, while Turkey, for example, supports a network of secondary schools and other types of schools.
From an economic perspective, the Russian presence locally is also limited; According to current year’s figures issued by the National Statistics Agency, Russia ranks eighth in terms of trade volume, with $289 million, far behind Iran ($1.4 billion), China ($1.2 billion), and Pakistan ($1.2 billion).
According to the World Bank, the Afghan economy shrank by about 35% over the past two years, and famine threatens large parts of its population, while United Nations reports indicate that two-thirds of Afghans live below the poverty line.
Against this background, the Taliban invested There is a lot of hope for imports of goods from Russia. In September 2022, Moscow and Kabul signed a major trade agreement under which Russia will supply Afghanistan with about one million tons of gasoline annually, the same amount of diesel, as well as half a million tons of liquefied natural gas. In addition, Afghanistan is scheduled to receive two million tons of wheat annually.
All of these goods are likely to be transported by road and rail, and the Taliban claim they are receiving them. At a discount compared to global market prices.
Moscow confirmed the agreement but did not comment on the details. For the Kremlin, developing relations with the Taliban is clearly a priority.
In February 2023, the Russian ambassador announced an agreement between Russia and the Taliban regarding the construction of a thermal power station in the north of the country.
He also stated Russian pipe manufacturers will participate in the Afghan section of the new gas pipeline scheduled to extend from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India. But so far, these plans remain on paper and there has been no news yet about their actual implementation.
For the Kremlin, it is clear that developing relations with the Taliban is a priority.
It is no coincidence that Russia was one of the few countries to grant accreditation to a Taliban diplomat – the new charge d’affaires at the Afghan embassy in Moscow “even though the flag of the Islamic Republic is still flying over the building.” The embassy.
Such relations allow Moscow to prove that it is not alone in its anti-Western narrative, regardless of how extensive any economic cooperation may be.
The bottom line is that the movement’s control The Taliban over Afghanistan, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham over Syria, made Turkey rush to benefit economically in the two countries where religious extremist groups rose to power, and this would place a burden on the Turkish economy in the beginning if things go the way Ankara likes.. Is the Turkish government ready? For him or not?.. Only days will prove.
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