After the customs earthquake … a detailed profit season for investors and the global economy
The report pointed out that the unexpected customs decisions of President Trump ignited unprecedented fluctuations, and re -fear of a widespread commercial war, caused a collective decline in dangerous assets before the markets returned to apostasy with the announcement of a temporary truce.
But the markets, despite this recovery, are still standing on the tips of their fingers. This decline in escalation was not enough to reassure investors, especially since tensions with China are still burning.
In this context, the profit season becomes a decisive station to test the extent of companies’ ability to withstand the challenges: from customs duties, to poor consumption, to global economic slowdown.
The profit season
The report said: The markets are still turbulent, while the ambiguity is overwhelmed by the scene, and the results of the first quarter may provide the clarity that investors strongly yearn for.
The report added that the historical increases in the customs duties announced by Donald Trump – which is the highest in more than a century – caused a sharp decline in the financial markets, to inspect the trillion dollars in just a few days of the announcement of April 2.
He explained that Trump surprised the markets on April 9 by announcing a 90 -day comment on the additional fees of the open countries to negotiate, while the fees on China were largely raised to a shocking percentage of 125%.
According to the report, this news sparked an exceptional wave of rise, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 index jumped by 9.5%, and the NASDAC index increased by 12%, to record the best daily performance since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Despite this temporary relief, fog is still present. As Trump’s decline was partial, and did not include China, which keeps fears of the renewal of commercial escalation once the suspension period ended.
He expected the current profit season to be subjected to accurate follow -up, with companies announcing the results of the first quarter under economic conditions characterized by extreme volatility. As usual, the focus does not focus on the past numbers as much as it focuses on seeing the executive departments of the future.
In 2025, Wall Street started with an atmosphere of optimism, as the markets expected to grow in corporate profits by approximately 11% during the first quarter compared to the previous year. However, the reality was soon to reduce these aspirations. According to Bloomberg data, the consensual estimates of the markets were sharply modified to only 6% – a significant decrease that exceeds the average usual declining modifications.
According to the report, this amendment is not merely a technical correction, but rather reflects the increasing anxiety about the economic slowdown, the decline in consumer spending, the erosion of companies ’profitability under the weight of customs duties, continuous inflation, and the deterioration of consumer confidence. Therefore, the results of this season may be decisive in determining whether these concerns are excessive, or that the worst has not yet happened.
What should investors monitor?
The report said that during this season, there are basic axes that require accurate follow -up:
1. The ability to pricing and profitable margins: The new customs duties impose concrete increases in the cost of production. The question remains: Can companies pass these costs to the final consumer? Strong and dominant market brands are the most able to protect their profits margins.
“Watch the margin pressure indicators closely. The companies unable to raise prices may face opposite winds that hinder the growth of their profits.”
2. Sales and demand prospects: Consumer confidence has witnessed a significant deterioration in recent months due to fears of commercial wars, harsh weather conditions, and sharp fluctuations in financial markets. The effect has begun to appear clearly in the highest -income slice, which is usually affected by market movements.
“I listened to the administration’s statements about consumer behavior. A sudden discount in sales directives may be an early indication of an upcoming economic stagnation.”
3. Capital spending plans and employment: In periods of ambiguity, companies tend to reduce their investments and employment plans, which is a warning signal to a possible slowdown in general economic activity.
“The corporate ads are watched about their future plans. Any retreat in investment or employment reflects anxiety with the administration regarding the prospects of growth.”
Future instructions
In this season, the importance will not lie in the results of the past, but rather what the departments say about the future. With the return of customs threats and the exacerbation of ambiguity in the global trade environment, companies may refrain from providing explicit financial directives, citing the lack of clarity of vision.
“The instructions are not mere numbers, but rather reflect the extent of the confidence of the administration. In light of this unprecedented situation, we may witness a wave of cautious directives, or the absence of direction completely.”
A look at the sectors
The effects of the fees and the inception of consumer certainty varies between the different sectors:
• Consumer goods and manufacturing industries lead the list of affected people, with a decrease in their profit expectations by about 10%.
• Raw materials and energy sectors face double pressure from low commodity prices and high operating costs.
• On the other hand, the health care and technology sectors show a relative hardness, with the highest expected growth rates in profits for the first quarter.
Individual investors should review the sectoral distribution of their governor, and avoid the sectors most vulnerable to customs duties.
A glimmer of hope or additional risks?
Despite the relief of the markets after the recent customs calm, the current profit season still holds conflicting possibilities. If companies prove flexibility in performance and offer reassuring visions, the current wave of ascension may be strengthened, and the last fluctuations turn into an opportunity.
Analysts expect profit growth by 8% during the second quarter of 2025 – a slightly higher percentage than the first quarter, but the path remains dependent on customs duties developments, especially with China, and in the general direction of the economy.
On the other hand, if companies fail to provide clear strategies to confront fees and maintain their profitability, anxiety may return to the markets, which may lead to a new wave of sale. So, it is wise to prepare for continuous fluctuations, and carefully analyze the statements of departments during this season.
How does investors deal?
The report recommended several practical recommendations:
• For cautious investors: focus on high -quality companies, durable budgets, regular cash flows, and stable returns – especially in defense sectors such as health care and public facilities.
• For enthusiastic investors of risk: selective opportunities can be seen for companies with solid foundations that have been justified as a result of the general mood or customs duties. However, avoiding entry into plots, the truce period may be temporary.
In all cases, he committed to discipline, avoiding emotional sale decisions, and considered this season an opportunity to assess the strength of the companies in which they invest.
A decisive moment
The markets move, in the short term, with the effect of emotions, but in the long run, it is the basics that resolve the direction.
He explained that the sudden decline in customs duties raised a relief wave, but that does not mean the disappearance of the risks. As the legendary investor, Benjamin Graham, said: “In the short term, the market is a voting machine; and in the long term, it is a balance that weighs the real value.”
The report issued by “Saksu Bank” said: The current profit season is your opportunity to weigh the facts rationally, go beyond ambiguity, and reset your investment link amid a commercial storm that has not yet been cleared. Prepare well – the profit season has started, and it will carry the answers – regardless of its direction.
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