The global economy has been heading towards the weakest performance registration since 2008

The World Bank reduced its expectations for global economic growth this year to 2.3%, with a decline approaching half a percentage point from the expected rate at the beginning of the year, without the possibility that the global economy will witness stagnation in 2025.

This came in the latest report issued by the World Bank entitled “Global Economic Prospects”, as these unrest led to a reduction in growth expectations for about 70% of the total economies around the world, in different regions and income categories.

According to the World Bank, the average global growth of the period from 2020 to 2026 may be the slower ever in any decade since the 1960s.

It is expected that the escalating trade tensions and uncertainty at the level of policy will lead to a decline in global economic growth this year to the slowest pace since 2008, with the exception of clear global recession periods.

In this context, Andremit Gil, President of Economic Experts and First Vice President for Development Economics Affairs of the World Bank Group, said: “With the exception of Asia, development has become almost absent from developing economies, which is clearly evident for more than a decade. 4% in the third contract.

Gil added: “This decline coincides with the low global trade growth rates from an average of 5% in the first decade of the millennium to about 4.5% in the second decade, to less than 3% in the third decade, and the rate of investment growth witnessed a remarkable slowdown, while the debt reached unprecedented levels.”

The growth rate is expected to slow in approximately 60% of the total developing economies this year, reaching an average of 3.8% in 2025, before witnessing a slight improvement to 3.9% during the years 2026 and 2027.

This level is lower at more than a percentage of average growth in the second decade of the current millennium, and it is expected that low -income countries will achieve 5.3% this year, which represents a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to expectations issued at the beginning of 2025.

The increases in customs duties and the narrow labor market also impose escalating pressure on global inflation, which is expected to be average of 2.9% in 2025, to remain at a level higher than before the Kofid 19 pandemic.

The slowdown in growth is an obstacle to developing economies in its endeavors to accelerate job creation, reduce extreme poverty, and reduce gaps in individual income levels compared to advanced economies.

It is expected that the growth rate of per capita income in developing economies will record 2.9% in 2025, which means a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the average growth in the period from 2000 to 2019.

Global growth may recover at a faster pace than expected if major economies can calm commercial tensions, which will limit the uncertainty at the level of policies in general and sharp financial fluctuations.

The analysis concluded that if the current trade conflicts are settled by reducing customs duties in half compared to their registered levels in late May, this global growth will enhance 0.2 percentage points on average during the years 2025 and 2026.

For his part, Ayan Kossi, Vice President of Economic Experts at the World Bank Group and Director of the Economic Economic Group of Development, said: “Establishments of emerging and developing markets have reaped the fruits of commercial integration, but she now finds itself in the range of global trade war fire For growth and enhancing financial flexibility to overcome this economic storm.

He added: “With the increasing commercial barriers and the aggravation of the uncertainty, the renewal of dialogue and cooperation globally contributes to drawing a more stable and prosperous path towards the future.”

The report confirms that in light of the increasing commercial barriers, developing economies must increase the liberalization of their markets by establishing strategic partnerships with other economies in the fields of trade and investment, and diversifying the sources of their trade, especially through regional agreements.

With regard to regional expectations, in the Middle East and North Africa, the growth rate is expected to rise to 2.7% in 2025, and will continue to improve to an average of 3.9% in 2026-2027.

The report estimated that the growth rate in the East Asian and Pacific region will decrease to 4.5% in 2025 and to 4% in 2026-2027.

He also expected growth in the region of Europe and Central Asia to 2.4% in 2025 before it improved slightly to 2.6% in 2026-2027.

In the Latin American region and the Caribbean Sea, the global growth rate is expected to remain fixed at 2.3% in 2025 before settling at 2.5% on average in 2026-2027.

The growth rate in South Asia is expected to decrease to 5.8% in 2025 before settling at 6.2% in 2026-2027.

He expected the growth rate in sub-Saharan Africa to rise to 3.7% in 2025, and that it would reach an average of 4.2% in 2026-2027.