The effect of Trump’s fees is less in stock markets and the fear index on the path of calm

Despite the sharp decline in the “Standard & Poor’s 500” index 14% since its highest levels at the beginning of the year, expectations indicate the possibility of Wall Street during the coming period, driven by historical data that usually show a strong rise in the aftermath of sharp altitudes with the “IX” fluctuations index.

The markets had been subjected to strong pressure after US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of customs duties on a number of commercial partners, which led to a wide wave of sale. However, the reach of the fluctuations index to historical levels is often an indication of the start of a new rise in the stock market.

Trump fee has declined

The main factor behind the collapse of the market was the announcement of a 10% comprehensive customs definition package on April 2, as well as selective definitions on the imports of each country, which led to the decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index of 12% in only five days trading, while the markets accommodated the sudden shift in American trade policy.
Also read: Trump customs duties threaten Asian countries other than China

This collapse prompted a number of analysts to raise their estimates of the risks of economic recession.

Do fluctuations carry positive surprises?

Despite the significant decline, historical data indicates that the index may witness a strong rise in the following year. The IX fluctuations index is used to measure expectations about the fluctuations of the stock market during the next thirty days, and it is known in the financial media as the “Fear Index”, due to its association with large -scale sale due to panic.

Since 1990, the average closure of the “IX” index reached about 19.5 points, with the lowest value of 9.1 and higher at 82.7 points.

A possible rise signals in the stocks

On April 8, the “VIX” index was closed at 52.3 points, which is one of the very high levels. According to historical data, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index usually achieves strong returns after these readings.
Also read: Investment banks warn: Trump fees may hinder Europe’s growth in 2025

Since 1990, “VIX” exceeded 50 in 75 trading sessions, that is, less than 1% of the total sessions. Almost every time, the Standard & Poor’s index recorded gains in the following years.

What do the numbers say about the expected returns?

It is estimated that the index may record an increase of up to 35% in a year, 55% in three years, and 129% in five years, according to the analysis of the strategic expert, Charlie Pelelo.

Rawd .. an existing possibility

It is striking that every time it exceeded the “IX” level 50, the American economy was going through a recession. This may not be a direct confirmation of the recession now, but it is a serious possibility. “We are very close to stagnation, if we are not already in it,” said Larry Fink, CEO of Black Rock, told CNBC.

The next market scenarios

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed at 4,983 points on April 8, while “VIX” scored 52.3 points. If the index follows historical trends, it may rise by 35% to 6,727 points by April 2026. This means 27% of its current level of 5,283 points.

Although some customs duties were suspended for 90 days, those that were already imposed raised the average fees on American imports to 28%, the highest level since 1901, according to Yale University estimates.

Consequently, the markets remain careful, waiting for whether Trump’s tariff will be an obstacle to the expected recovery, or just a passing storm in a possible rise.