Amid political pressure and commercial ambiguity .. Does the “federal” amend interest rates?

The President of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is heading to the Central Bank Conference Hall on July 29 and 30, to announce the interest rate path, in a period characterized by tremendous political pressure, volatile trade policies, and cross economic currents.

The state of the economy

Experts expect the second -quarter data to show the recovery of economic activity, driven by a significant decrease in the trade deficit, although job growth in July is slowing down.
The report may show a slight rise in the basic in June compared to the previous month.
While it is expected that the pre -governmental estimate of the GDP for the second quarter will appear by 2.4% on an annual basis, after the growth rate of 0.5% decreased in the first quarter, the second quarter report that will be issued on July 30 is likely to reveal a modest demand from families and commercial investment.

Path predictions

The current interest rate ranges at 4.25%-4.50%, and most expectations indicate that they will be kept unchanged, especially as inflation continues over the target specified 2%.
Al -Allianz’s chief economic consultant, Mohamed El -Erian, said that the central bank should have started the reduction in June, but it is not actually expected to be achieved due to the caution of monetary policy makers.
Analyst at FX Pro, Michel Salibi, is likely to install interest rates in July, with any future reduction until the September 2025 meeting.
Most of the very low expectations to reduce interest in July showed that the markets believe that the opportunity to reduce interest by 25 basis points is “almost non -existent.”