“Finance”: Expectations of GDP growth at constant prices of 3.1% during 2025

Sayed Hussein Al-Qassab

The Ministry of Finance and National Economy expected that the gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices would grow by 3.1% during the year 2025, supported by the growth of non-oil activities by 3.1% and oil activities by 3.0%, with economic momentum continuing through the year 2026, and expected GDP growth of 3.3%, supported by the growth of non-oil activities by 3.5% and oil activities by 2.1%.

The quarterly economic report for the third quarter of 2025 showed that Bahrain’s gross domestic product grew by 4.0% on an annual basis at constant prices during the third quarter of 2025, to reach 3,923.0 million dinars. This growth was mainly driven by an increase in non-oil activities by 3.1% to reach 3,333.7 million Bahraini dinars, while oil activities increased by 9.3% to reach 3,333.7 million Bahraini dinars. 589.3 million dinars.

The Ministry issued the quarterly economic report for the Kingdom of Bahrain for the third quarter of the year 2025, which reviewed the performance of the national economy, growth indicators, and sectoral developments, in addition to developments in foreign trade and the Kingdom’s position in international indicators, reflecting the strength of the Bahraini economy and the continuity of the sustainable growth path.

Preliminary data for the national accounts issued by the Information and e-Government Authority showed that the gross domestic product of the Kingdom of Bahrain recorded a growth of 4.0% on an annual basis in constant prices during the third quarter of 2025, reaching 3,923.0 million dinars.

This growth was mainly driven by an increase in non-oil activities by 3.1% to reach 3,333.7 million dinars, while oil activities increased by 9.3% to reach 589.3 million dinars.

As for current prices, the gross domestic product reached 4,563.0 million dinars during the third quarter of the year 2025, achieving an annual growth of 4.5%, as non-oil activities recorded a growth of 4.9% to reach 3,928.7 million dinars, while oil activities grew by 2.3% to reach 634.3 million dinars.

According to estimates by the Ministry of Finance and National Economy, the gross domestic product at constant prices is expected to grow by 3.1% during the year 2025, supported by the growth of non-oil activities by 3.1% and oil activities by 3.0%.

Expectations also indicate continued economic momentum during the year 2026, with GDP expected to grow by 3.3%, supported by the growth of non-oil activities by 3.5% and oil activities by 2.1%.

The Kingdom of Bahrain continued to strengthen its position as an attractive destination for investment and stimulating innovation, supporting sustainable economic growth. The third edition of the Gulf Gateway Forum 2025 witnessed the announcement of more than 60 strategic projects with a total value exceeding $17 billion, a clear indication of the strength of the investment environment in the Kingdom and its ability to attract quality projects.

The financial services sector witnessed the implementation of specific initiatives to enhance digital transformation and expand the scope of financial services.

In this context, Al Salam Bank launched the ASB Pay Business digital platform in cooperation with the Arab Financial Services Company (AFS), which provides advanced solutions that include digital invoices, payment links, and direct linking to bank accounts, while tracking transactions in real time through a secure user interface.

The regional bank SICO also announced the launch of investment products with a total value of $500 million, which included new investment funds worth $450 million, in addition to implementing deals in the field of investment banking services worth more than $50 million.

The manufacturing sector recorded qualitative industrial investments aimed at increasing its contribution to the national economy. Bahrain Titanium Company announced the launch of the first integrated titanium factory of its kind in the region, with an investment of 200 million US dollars, and a production capacity of 4,000 tons annually of pure titanium sheets and 1,500 tons of fifth-grade titanium alloys.

Bahrain Refrigeration Electromechanical Equipment Company also announced the establishment of a factory to produce commercial refrigeration devices worth $98.4 million in the Bahrain International Investment Zone, to be a regional center for the production of highly efficient and energy-saving refrigeration systems.

The tourism sector witnessed the announcement of projects aimed at developing and expanding the tourism infrastructure in the Kingdom, as Al Areen Entertainment and Tourism Company signed an agreement worth $30 million to redevelop and renovate the Lost Paradise of Dilmun Water Park and relaunch it under the name “Dilmun Paradise.”

Bahrain Marina Development Company also announced the signing of an agreement with Nass Contracting Company to implement the work of constructing beach facilities within the Bahrain Marina project on the waterfront of the capital, Manama, on an area exceeding 8,000 square metres.

The communications and information technology sector recorded strategic investments in support of digital transformation in the Kingdom of Bahrain, as Batelco signed a strategic agreement with the Bahrain Network Company (BNET) to develop the infrastructure for submarine communications cables, thus enhancing the integration of national and international networks.

The Pune company also announced the establishment of the second data center that relies entirely on solar energy, following the completion of the third phase of the solar park project, with an investment of $1.38 million.

According to foreign trade statistics issued by the Information and e-Government Authority, the total value of exports increased by 7.1% on an annual basis during the third quarter of 2025 to reach 2,358.8 million dinars.

This increase is attributed to the growth of non-oil exports by 9.3%, reaching 1,245.1 million dinars, in addition to the increase in oil exports by 4.7%, reaching 1,113.7 million dinars.

The value of exports of national origin reached 1,059.1 million dinars, recording a growth of 11.6%, while the value of re-exported goods reached 185.9 million dinars.

Basic metals topped the list of most exported goods during the third quarter of 2025, constituting 60.6% of total exports of national origin, followed by mineral products at 15.4%, then chemicals at 6.3%.

In terms of trading partners, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia maintained its lead with a rate of 24.1%, followed by the United States of America with a rate of 9.9%, and then the United Arab Emirates with a rate of 9.2%.

At the level of international indicators, the Kingdom of Bahrain achieved first place in the Gulf in 8 sub-indices within the Global Talent Competitiveness Index 2025 issued by INSEAD and the Portolans Institute.

The Kingdom also came first in the Gulf and second in the Arab world as the freest economy in the Economic Freedom in the World 2025 report issued by the Fraser Institute, reflecting the economic environment supportive of growth and investment.