Trump’s decision to freeze military aid to Ukraine re -“arranges” the battlefield

The new US President Donald Trump’s decision to stop military aid and exchange intelligence with Ukraine may arrange the battlefield in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine, either by stopping the fighting, or giving Russia a decisive advantage.

With the help of Europe, whether with weapons or intelligence support, Ukraine can continue to fight during the summer, without additional American assistance, but analysts say the loss of one of its most important supporters will make it easy for Russia to attack the Ukrainian defense lines.

“Despite the shortage of ammunition and forces, the Ukrainians have succeeded in preventing any kind of Russian penetration,” says Seth Ji -Jones, Seth Ji Jones.

Trump administration officials confirm that the stopping of support may be relatively short, if the Ukrainian president, Voludmir Zellinski, bends the White House demands, at a time when Trump stated in his speech to Congress that Zilinski’s statement is valued that he was “ready to come to the negotiating table.”

Currently, the Trump administration is practicing the maximum pressure on Ukraine, and relatively relatively on Russian President Vladimir Putin or the Russian army, which continued to attack Ukrainian cities. And if Ukraine believes that the United States is not an impartial mediator of peace, it may proceed with fighting with the support of Europe.

The direct blow

The Russians have not yet been able to achieve air superiority since the beginning of their war with Ukraine three years ago, and they were unable to effectively combine military units in joint operations, and incurred heavy losses, to the extent that Putin used 11,000 North Korean soldiers to help reduce pressure, as military experts said, but this was before Trump threw his weight behind Russia.

“The direct blow to the morale of the Ukrainian forces will be, strengthening the Russians and frustrating the Ukrainians,” says Alexander Venezman, who served in the National Security Council in 2019.

Trump’s decision affects billions of dollars of weapons and ammunition that America provides to the Ukrainian forces, as well as the delivery of equipment from the stocks of the US Department of Defense (Pentagon), as well as aid through the Ukraine security assistance initiative, which provides money for Kev to purchase new military equipment directly from US defense companies, and Ukraine will lose advanced weapons, including ballistic missiles «ground-land), The missile artillery is long -range, spare parts, maintenance and technical support.

The crucial thing in this regard is that the stopping of US military aid will stop the delivery of the interceptor missiles for the Patriot and NASMS, which saved countless lives thanks to protecting the Ukrainian cities from missile and drone attacks, while the interruption of intelligence will obscure the information that Ukraine uses to target Russian forces.

Black -up methods

The blocking of aid aims, according to the Trump administration officials, to pressure Zelinski to sign a deal whereby American companies can extract Ukrainian minerals, and one of the Trump administration officials said that if an agreement is reached, intelligence information will continue, and the military supplies allocated to the Biden administration will continue again.

The Russian forces were trying to restore more lands in the Corsak region in Russia, which Ukraine seized last year.

For its part, Europe, especially France and Britain, has been providing Ukraine with satellite images that can be used to find Russian targets in the battlefield, yet European satellites are unable to monitor Russian military moves such as American spy satellites, and Ukrainian officials admit that if intelligence continues, there will be severe consequences.

And if the American supply stops until the beginning of the early summer, Ukraine will lose its supplies from some advanced weapons, including advanced air defense systems and ballistic missiles “land-land”, and navigation systems and long-range missile artillery, as the prolonged deficiency in these weapons would harm Ukraine’s ability to hit long-range targets, and may make Ukrainian cities and forces more Vulnerable to attacks of missiles, shells and drones.

The Pentagon said last Monday that the Trump administration sent some of the weapons promised by the administration of the former president, Joe Biden, to Ukraine, including “hundreds of multiple missile firing systems, anti -tank weapons and thousands of artillery shells.”

Loss of “Patriot” missiles

Under Trump’s directives, these delivery operations will stop, at least until the President decides that Ukraine has shown a goodwill commitment to peace negotiations with Russia, as a senior administration official said.

However, “The nature of the types of weapons systems currently used by the Ukrainians is different from those who relied on them in the first months of the war.”

He continued, “The defensive industrial base in Ukraine has grown significantly, and they can produce many things they need,” Barros believes that most of the losses that Ukrainian forces inflicted in Russia were due to homemade drones, and other weapons that were produced in Ukraine.

“It seems as if the Ukrainians on the front lines will not face a severe shortage of their basic equipment immediately,” he added, but what Ukraine will lose, as he and other experts say, is the interceptor “Patriot” missiles that helped the country’s air defenses.

European countries have interceptor “Patriot” missiles, but they may have to sacrifice parts of their air defense umbrella for the benefit of Ukraine, and this may be a difficult demand at a time when the allies of NATO countries are no longer “NATO”, confident that the United States will blow to defend them if they are attacked.

European leaders say they will meet in Brussels to trade in two topics on the agenda: how to support Ukraine and how to enhance their military capabilities.

The scenario of war

During a tense meeting in the Oval Office last week, Trump told the Ukrainian president that he is not in a good situation, and Trump explained to him by saying: “You do not have the papers now,” but no one can predict what might mean stopping aid and exchanging intelligence information for the war, as military officials said.

For his part, a retired First Lieutenant and former US Army in Europe, Frederick B. Hodges: “Saying that the Ukrainians do not have the necessary papers indicates that those around the president do not actually understand the nature of the war, or why men and women are ready to fight, even if they sacrificed themselves to the last person.”

It is believed that Ukraine may win, or at least in a much better position, if the Europeans provide the support they are able to provide, and adds: “They will do this without the United States, and the result will be the loss of credibility and the loss of influence for the United States.”

Military experts say that the other scenario of Russia’s victory over Ukraine may be more darker for the Trump administration, and such victory can encourage Putin to move forward in its expansion goals, which ultimately leads to a major war in Europe, and Jones indicated that the United States tried in the past to stay away from the wars of the major powers in Europe, and has not succeeded. On the New York Times

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“Starlink” network

It is not clear that the internet service through the satellite “Starlink”, after Trump’s decision to freeze military aid, and the “Starlink” network, which is run by the company “SpaceX”, owned by the American billionaire close to Trump, Elon Musk, was very important for the Ukrainian army since the early days of the war, as it allowed soldiers to communicate and exchange information, without the need to resort To text messages on mobile networks, which can be interceptor more easily.

. The Trump administration is exerting the maximum pressure on Ukraine, and relatively relatively on the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and the Russian army that continued to attack Ukrainian cities.

. If Ukraine believes that the United States is not an impartial mediator of peace, it may proceed with fighting with the support of Europe.