Trump’s commercial war is pushing the global economy towards the edge of recession

The announcement of the last customs duties of US President Donald Trump may be the most prominent transformation in the history of the US foreign policy of the United States, without exaggerating its global repercussions. The global economy threatens to slip towards a great recession, as a result of the escalation of a fierce trade war, according to the newspaper “China and Rakir”.

Unprecedented American customs duties

The United States imposed customs duties on its imports at levels that have not been recorded since the nineteenth century.
These fees include 10%, which are applied almost comprehensively to each commercial partner around the world, including the small Norfolk Island in the Pacific Ocean, with a population of only 2188 people.
Also read: How do companies try to escape the high customs duties of Trump?

China is in the range of the harshest sanctions

The most severe punitive measures are China, which former US President Donald Trump is still considered the greatest threat to American imperialism. In addition to the current fees, additional customs duties were imposed by 34%, raising the total customs burden on Chinese exports to more than 60%.
Similar measures have also affected neighboring countries related to close economic and political relations with Beijing, in an attempt to inflict deeper damage to the Chinese economy. The fees on Cambodia imports increased by 49%, and Vietnam by 46%.

Imposing fees on allies

The new American customs duties were not limited to opponents, but also the allies. A 24% increase was imposed on Japan, although it is one of the most important strategic allies of the United States in the Pacific region.
Also read: Trump customs duties threaten Asian countries other than China
The European Union also obtained its procedures with customs customs sanctions of 20%, after escalating disputes over the Ukraine war, which enhances tension within the Western bloc.

Europe threatens a retaliatory response

On the other hand, the European Commission began to discuss the possibility of imposing revenge fees. UNHCR president Ursula von der Line announced that the European Union is “ready to respond”, amid proposals to target major technology companies and US service exports in particular.

America’s allies are in trouble

The affected US allies face a real dilemma. Silence may be interpreted as a weakness that encourages more aggressive measures, while a revenge response carries an additional escalation risk that may harm the global economy more. Despite those concerns, it is estimated that many countries may tend to respond.

Heavy losses in financial markets

With Trump’s escalation of the trade war with China and turning it into a global crisis, global stock markets have witnessed a severe sales wave that is the largest since the Korona pandemic. The indicators lost trillion dollars during the first 24 hours, and the losses continued on the next trading day without indicators on the decline.
Simultaneously, the returns of government bonds fell in many countries, as investors went towards them as a safe haven.
“The markets do nothing but pricing in a global recession.”.

The working layer bears the biggest burden

Although stock prices may not mean much for the working class and the poor around the world, the financial indicators reflect the expectations of the ruling class for the future of the economy. These dark expectations vow with real repercussions that will affect people’s lives around the world.
In advanced capitalist economies, the prices of consumer goods are expected to increase dramatically due to protectionist policies, which exacerbates inflation and increases the possibility of stagnation, a catastrophic mixture of poor and medium classes.

Will “Economic Termus” succeed?

Trump believes that the imposition of customs duties will help reduce dependence on imports and motivate the local industry. However, the initial data indicates that these results may not be easily achieved.
Reviving the American manufacturing sector requires huge and sustainable investments, which does not seem that the American capitalist class is ready for it, especially in light of the state of economic uncertainty.
As for the option of the state’s intervention and pumping public investments in industrial infrastructure, it is not part of the Trump economic agenda today, but rather the exact opposite.

New commercial deals or temporary alternative?

Trump is likely to seek bilateral trade deals with some countries, to show it as “economic victories.” However, in light of the exacerbation of the global recession, these deals may seem temporary solutions that do not address the origin of the economic crisis that ravages the global order.