What are the expectations of the next round of the trade war … and does the “knockout” witness?

After the new comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump entered into force, the markets were shaken, and companies and families began to reconsider their financial plans. But according to the American CNN, the worst has not come yet, and the next round may witness what can be called a “knockout.”

Trade War … direct and harsh consequences

Trump’s commercial policies – which were described by economic reports as being based on doubtful accounts – raised a wave of reprisals, and contributed to the escalation of commercial wars, which increased the possibilities of global recession during the short and medium term.
Experts believe that the dangerous mixture of fear, the inability to predict, wasted investments, and the sudden rise in costs, may quickly translate into real and sustainable economic pain for consumers around the world.

A new round of fees under preparation

Although the customs definitions that entered into force excluded some basic materials such as copper, computer flakes, medicines, wood, and biomedes, Trump administration officials have hinted that these products may be subsequently subject to additional definitions.
Also read: Including China .. Trump: Customs duties will be concluded with all countries
It is still unclear whether Canada and Mexico – and they are one of the most prominent America’s commercial partners – will remain immune to these escalatory measures.

Analysts: American commercial policy “without negotiation”

“I don’t see this list as a negotiating position. It is comprehensive and large, and indicates that we are building walls that we do not plan to remove.”
The first round of customs duties began on April 5, followed by additional definitions in the middle of last week. It included the imposition of 10% on all imports to the United States, in addition to higher fees targeting fifty countries described by the White House as the “most violating” trade rules.
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However, what was called “exchange fees” came contrary to the economic reality, which increased the complexity of the scene and contributed to the exacerbation of negative effects.
Some additional fees amounted to more than 45%, and they were calculated in a controversial way by dividing the bilateral trade balance deficit on commodity exports.

Economists: Politics lacks logic

Marcus Noland, Vice President of the Peterson Institute for the International Economy, criticized the way policy was designed, saying: “It is natural that there will be a trade deficit and surplus between countries.

Severe effects on the global economy

Recent measures were considered to be pouring oil on the fire of the global economy, as some of the senior financial officials prompted to warn that the recession has become closer to what was expected.
“These fees may quickly lead to negative results within the United States itself,” said Jimmy Damon, CEO of GB Morgan Chis.
These policies are likely to lead to high inflation rates not only for imported goods, but within the American markets in general.
Damon warned that the continuation of these measures would affect investor confidence, capital flows, corporate profitability, and US dollar stability.
He added: “The more late to solve this crisis, the greater the cumulative effects, and it becomes difficult to reverse.”
In turn, Joe Prussuelaas, the chief economist of the American company RSM, said that the decline in the sharp financial markets reflects a real crisis of confidence in the American economy, especially in the status of the dollar.

The best and worst scenarios in 12 months

According to analysts, the best possible scenario is during the next 12 months in: GDP contraction by 0.2%, the employment rate decreased by 0.1%, and the increase in inflation rate by 0.2%
As for the worst scenarios, they are: a decrease in local product by 1.3% (after it was growing by 2.4% at the end of 2024), a loss of 1.3 million jobs, and the increase in inflation by 1.3%

Will the retaliatory measures expand?

Expectations indicate that reprisals may expand, especially if the American administration continues to implement Article 232 of the 1962 trade expansion law, which allows the imposition of customs duties to protect national security.
Some sectors were excluded from the last package, such as steel, aluminum, and cars, which are the sectors of definitions. The exceptions also included: copper, wood, pharmaceutical products, semi -conductors, and biological minerals.