Britain and Germany are paying the price for misdiagnosis of issues of identity, sovereignty and belonging

The resigned British Health Minister, Wes Streeting, wants to return Britain to the embrace of the European Union, or at least bring it close enough to it, but without full commitment.

Naturally, Brussels is happy about this. Finally, a high-ranking British minister speaks the language of regulatory harmony and rapprochement with the single market. The Europeans believe that the “politically mature” have returned. They must be thinking that this is finally an “antidote” to populist politicians like Nigel Farage and Robert Lowe.

But Streeting’s charming campaign is based on an assumption so shaky that it barely stands up to reality: that parties like Reform UK can be defeated by economic growth and improved public services. The theory goes: “Make people richer, and they will stop voting for Nigel Farage.” But prosperity as a political analgesic is a convenient idea, but it is also completely wrong.

A revolution of identity and belonging

The political revolution sweeping the West is not, in essence, an economic revolution. It is a revolution of identity, sovereignty and belonging: a clash that no amount of growth in GDP will resolve. Brexit was never really about trade or anything like that. As for millions of voters, it was a question of who rules Britain and for whom?

Economists who insisted on measuring everything in terms of market access missed the point; And they still miss him. Now, Germany’s major parties are making exactly the same mistake. Friedrich Merz took power as the new Chancellor of Germany, promising a tougher stance. He talked about reducing immigration, and alluded to cultural challenges. For a brief moment, it looked as if the CDU might actually address the issues that drove the rise of the AfD. He then formed a coalition with the Social Democrats, took office, and returned to his usual routine. The Meretz presidency quickly became frustrating, a continuation of the bureaucratic administration under former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but with some different details.

Incorrect diagnosis

The CDU’s theory of action matches that of the resigned British Health Minister, Wes Streeting: “Fix the economy, and the populists will back down.” “Stimulate growth, reduce energy costs, restore German industrial competitiveness, and voters will come to their senses.” The Alternative for Germany Party, in this interpretation, is a fever that will go away as soon as the patient feels better.

This is a false and disastrous diagnosis. The Alternative Party is not rising in popular support because Germans cannot afford a new kitchen. It rises because millions of Germans feel their country is being transformed, without their consent, by uncontrolled immigration, by an energy transition that has destroyed industrial regions, and by a political class that treats dissent as a crime.

The Green Revolution, carried out with German precision, not only raised electricity prices, but also destroyed an industrial model that formed the basis of national self-confidence. So, when BASF moves its production to China, it is not just an institutional decision, but rather a symbol of “total chaos.”

Migration and identity

Regarding the issue of immigration, the CDU still lacks a convincing answer. Meretz took a hard-line position when he was in the opposition, while he took a lenient position while in government, within the coalition. The result is the worst of both worlds: He alienates liberal voters without convincing conservative voters. As for the Alternative for Germany party, it offers something that the Christian Democratic Union cannot: clarity.

This clarity may be a bit strange; But in politics, the obvious wrong answer often trumps the ambiguous right answer.

The European center-left faces a deeper problem than that. For decades, identity politics had a monopoly, with the politics of recognition, minority rights and progressive social change prevailing, but now identity is moving in the opposite direction.

The new identity politics are national, not global. It is about borders, not their abolition. It is about cultural continuity, not constant reinvention. The “centre left” does not have the vocabulary to express this. He can only denounce, and thus retreat further and further. Here the current chaos in Britain should serve as a warning to Germany.

Conservatives ignored and ultimately fell prey to the cultural undercurrents that led to Brexit. Labor now governs a country where the Reform UK movement sets the tone for the political debate on immigration and national identity, while Streeting’s response is to retreat slightly towards Brussels; As if the whole unrest was just a misunderstanding that could have been avoided with “better economic management.”

Meanwhile, centrists in Germany are making the same bet. They believe that a growing economy and some token gestures about border security will be enough. But they are wrong. Voters don’t just want prosperity, they want to know where their country is headed. What is the strategy? And they want leaders who are honest enough to say so.

Until the CDU finds an answer to this question, the AfD will continue to ask it on their behalf, and will outperform them in the opinion polls.

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