المملكة: “El Nino” heralds a hotter summer and expected floods in the west of the Kingdom
Warn Regional Center for Climate Change from The “El Niño” climate phenomenon and the sea surface temperature exceeding its normal levels during the coming months.
A recent report issued by the center on the phenomenon of Southern Oscillation (ENSO) revealed that the climate situation is currently passing through a neutral stage based on the latest documented observations until May 5, 2026 AD.
The report explained that the “Niño 3.4” index recorded about “+0.39” degrees Celsius, thus settling within the safe and neutral range for the phenomenon, which oscillates between “-0.80” and “+0.80” degrees Celsius.
Monthly readings
The report indicated that the monthly readings of the same indicator portend an extremely high probability of the formation of “El Niño” conditions between the months of May and October of this year, and this is due to the sea surface temperature breaking the barrier of “+0.8” degrees Celsius.
The Center indicated an expected upward trajectory for temperature differences from the normal rate, starting from “+1.1” degrees Celsius in May, passing through “+1.4” in June, and reaching “+1.8” in July.
The expected temperature jumps continue to record “+2.3” in August, and “+2.5” in September, until they peak at “+2.8” degrees Celsius by October of the year. 2026 AD.
Direct repercussions
The Center drew attention to the direct repercussions of these changes on the local climate map, warning of the growing chances of rainfall and the high risk of torrential rains in the western parts of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, specifically during the fall season in the months of September, October and November.
The forecasts added that the rain effects will extend to include large areas of the country during the next rainy season, which begins in October 2026 and continues until May. 2027 AD.
Heavy rain
The report suggests that the southwestern highlands will receive amounts of rain exceeding the usual levels during the coming summer of the current year.
With regard to temperatures, the center confirmed the possibility of recording significant increases in the maximum and minimum temperature averages throughout the year, which threatens to worsen the severity of heat waves during the coming summer and fall seasons.
Severe cold waves
The readings showed that this temperature rise It will reduce the chances of cooling the atmosphere and lowering temperatures at night, in addition to reducing the possibility of severe cold waves occurring during the coming winter.
The report concluded its analyzes by emphasizing the presence of a margin of uncertainty surrounding the expectations associated with the numerical models of the “El Niño” phenomenon, stressing the need to maintain a state of continuous monitoring and follow-up.
The Center stressed the importance of this careful follow-up, especially after the end of the spring period extending from February to May, which It is classified climatically as one of the most volatile periods in the accuracy of climate calculations.
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