Report to" Dubai Multi Commodities": Artificial intelligence, tariffs, and competition for vital minerals are redrawing the map of global trade

Dubai, June 10 / WAM / The “Future of Trade 2026” report issued by the Dubai Multi Commodities Center confirmed that global trade will continue to show levels of flexibility over the next two years, but its traditional rules are witnessing fundamental transformations led by artificial intelligence technologies, increasing fluctuations in customs duties, restructuring supply chains, and global competition for vital minerals and clean energy technologies.

The report, titled “The Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding through Radical Transformation,” explained that more than four out of five business leaders working in the global trade sector expect a slowdown in trade growth, continued supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical fluctuations in the coming years, while about 12% of participants expected a more pessimistic scenario represented by the escalation of trade disputes, sanctions, and the division of the global financial system, compared to only 4% who expected the most positive scenario.

The report indicated an increase in the percentage of global goods imports subject to customs duties or similar measures from 12.6% a year ago to about 20% currently, which reflects the escalating pressures facing international trade.

The report showed that goods related to artificial intelligence have become the most prominent driver of global trade growth, as they recorded a growth of more than 20% during the first half of 2025, compared to less than 4% for goods not related to artificial intelligence. It also accounted for 43% of the total growth in global merchandise trade, even though it represents only 15% of the volume of global trade.

These goods include semiconductors, servers and data center equipment, while the report estimated that continued growth in trade in goods related to artificial intelligence could add up to half a percentage point to global export volumes.

The report expected the growth of global merchandise exports to slow to 1.9% in 2026 after recording 4.6% in 2025, before rising to 2.6% in 2027, while services exports are expected to continue to grow at rates exceeding merchandise exports.

Ahmed bin Sulayem, the first CEO and executive director of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, said that goods related to artificial intelligence contributed 43% to the growth of global trade in the first half of 2025, even though they represent only 15% of the volume of global trade, stressing that these indicators reflect the entry of global trade into a new phase in which technology, the ability to secure energy, and the speed of responding to disturbances determine the ability of companies to compete, in addition to the cost and geographical factor.

He added that Dubai chose to be at the heart of these transformations through its economic openness, rapid response, and close ties to global markets, noting that the presence of approximately 27,000 companies within the DMCC business system provides a direct vision of the ongoing transformations in the sectors of goods, technology, finance, and trade.

For her part, Faryal Ahmadi, Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer at the Dubai Multi Commodities Center, confirmed that artificial intelligence has already begun to raise the efficiency of operations related to customs, logistics, compliance and trade finance, while stable digital currencies, asset tokenization techniques and digital currencies for central banks have begun to accelerate financial settlement processes and provide greater operational flexibility in a number of trade corridors.

She added that the requirements for data regulation, cybersecurity, and data governance are becoming increasingly important for companies operating in international markets, stressing that global trade centers are required to anticipate companies’ needs and create business environments capable of supporting growth and adapting to rapid changes.

The report identified four main factors that are reshaping global trade: the transition of artificial intelligence from the experimental stage to operational application, the decline in the stability of traditional customs frameworks, the shift of supply chains from focusing on efficiency to focusing on operational flexibility, in addition to the escalation of global competition for vital minerals and clean energy technologies.

Regarding artificial intelligence, the report indicated that less than 15% of companies are using artificial intelligence in an integrated manner within their operational processes, while more than a quarter of companies reported that they do not have a tangible use of this technology yet, warning of a widening competitive gap between advanced institutions in this field and others.

Regarding customs duties, the report indicated that rules-based trade is witnessing unprecedented levels of disintegration, as more than half of participants expect global trade to become more regional and linked to economic blocs, while only 17% see the possibility of returning to a more pluralistic model.

The report indicated that global supply chains have gone beyond the “China + 1” model and moved towards a more diversified model based on “China + multiple markets,” as US imports from Vietnam increased by 345% between 2014 and 2024, from India by 94%, and from Mexico by 72%, while imports from China declined by 5%.

He also pointed out that the 2026 disturbances associated with the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting rise in oil prices and decline in tanker traffic reinforced the need to rebuild supply chains on more flexible foundations, pointing out that 45% of companies have already begun re-localizing part of their operations or transferring them to nearby markets or partners who enjoy a higher degree of political reliability.

In the clean energy sector, the report indicated that global investments in this field reached a record level of $2.3 trillion during 2025, exceeding fossil fuel investments by $102 billion.

He added that China controls 94% of the global production of sintered permanent magnets, and enjoys an advanced position in refining 19 out of 20 strategic minerals monitored by the International Energy Agency, which reflects the importance of vital minerals in global industrial competition equations.

Regarding trade financing, the report indicated that the global trade financing gap remains at the level of $2.5 trillion, explaining that stable digital currencies and modern financing technologies can contribute to reducing this gap, especially after the global supply of stable digital currencies exceeded $300 billion at the beginning of 2026, and the growth of commercial payments between companies using these currencies by 733% during the year 2025.

The report monitored the continued rise of trade between the economies of the South, as it currently represents about 35% of global trade, exceeding trade flows between the economies of the North, while the International Monetary Fund expects emerging and developing economies to account for approximately two-thirds of global growth by 2030.

He pointed out that the UAE, India and Singapore represent models of influential middle economies that have succeeded in attracting global trade and investment flows thanks to their advanced infrastructure and diverse trade networks.

“The Future of Trade 2026” is the sixth and tenth edition since the launch of the report, and was based on 12 panel discussions in which more than 200 senior officials, policymakers and trade experts participated, in addition to a survey that included more than 130 companies and international experts in the global trade sector.

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