Russia faces the challenge of retaining the Crimean Peninsula 12 years after its annexation

With the rapid and decisive annexation of Crimea in 2014, President Vladimir Putin became, in the eyes of his compatriots, the great leader capable of “restoring historical justice” and “returning” Crimea “forever” to “Mother Russia.”

Now, with the outbreak of war on the peninsula, the victory of 2014 has turned into a tragedy for its residents.

The situation may get worse, as new questions arise on the peninsula: Will it become a besieged and isolated fortress suffering from a chronic shortage of supplies?

Will the current Ukrainian attack lead to retaliation from Moscow and lead to heavy human losses?

On the first anniversary of the annexation, Putin revealed that, upon launching the operation, he had issued “instructions and orders” to the military regarding “possible Russian actions, the behavior of the armed forces under any scenario.”

When asked if he had put Russian nuclear forces on alert, he replied: “We were prepared for the worst-case scenarios.”

“In Crimea, everything is literally imbued with our common history and pride,” Putin said in March 2014 in his annual State of the Nation address. Here is located the ancient city of Chersonesos, where Prince Saint Vladimir was baptized,” adding: “In the hearts and minds of the people, Crimea has always been and will remain an integral part of Russia.”

He confirmed in September 2016 that the people of Crimea had made their decision and voted, considering that the issue had ended historically, and there was no return to the previous regime at all.

List of “Sympathizers”

The strength of the Russian narrative on Crimea, and the certainty expressed by Putin, was so strong that a number of prominent Western politicians expressed their understanding of the Russian president’s position, regardless of international law, including the Russian-Ukrainian bilateral agreements, which left no doubt that the peninsula falls under Kiev’s jurisdiction.

Among those who appeared on the list of “sympathizers” were former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who visited the Crimean Peninsula after its annexation, in addition to former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, and a group of representatives from different political spectrums who in turn traveled to the peninsula.

They were joined by Maria Vladimirovna, the leader of the Romanov family, and other relatives who visited Crimea in 2016.

settlement

For many years, Crimea remained practically outside the scope of efforts to reach a settlement between Ukraine and pro-Russian forces in the country.

The most prominent example of this was the Minsk talks held in February 2015 under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, with the participation of France and Germany.

These negotiations dealt only with the separatists in the unilaterally declared “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics,” excluding Crimea, and culminated in a ceasefire agreement and the separation of forces in the Donbass region.

Avoiding any mention of Crimea was the only way to bring Russia to the negotiating table, in what was then officially presented as a conflict between Kiev and the two self-declared republics.

Crimea remained outside the scope of negotiations, because Russian leaders declared that the peninsula, unlike the Donbass region, is an integral part of Russian territory.

Fast pace

In practice, efforts to “connect” Crimea to Russia have progressed at a rapid pace, with a new highway, a new airport, and the 11-mile Kerch Strait Bridge, which opened in 2019, being built.

New residents arrived from Siberia and distant Russian regions, eager to start a new life in the picturesque environment of the Crimean peninsula, and to replace the Tatars and Ukrainians, whose communities were shrinking due to exile and displacement.

According to Ukrainian data, more than 140,000 Russians settled in Crimea between 2014 and 2018.

By 2021, the population, whose composition was partially and deliberately changed, reached more than 1.93 million.

Tourism began again, especially after the opening of the bridge. The planes were flying between the Russian cities and Simferopol, and although they had to turn around to avoid Ukrainian territory, the flights were frequent and affordable. In 2021, the number of tourists exceeded nine million.

Russian-appointed authorities in Crimea organized international investment forums and facilitated a redistribution of property by reviewing property rights that Ukraine had previously recognized.

Banks developed mechanisms to circumvent international sanctions, while imports flowed through intermediaries in Russia.

Part of Russia

Behind the scenes, some European diplomats saw the possibility that Crimea, although never officially recognized, would gradually become accepted in practice as part of Russia, perhaps even gaining official status, through an internationally recognized referendum or some form of reparations payment to Kiev.

Meanwhile, in the Donbass region, the OSCE monitoring mission was functioning reasonably well, and the region was settling into another “frozen conflict” situation in the post-Soviet space.

This was not an ideal arrangement, but it provided advantages for both pro-Western Ukrainian powers and for Russia, which did not have to publicly take responsibility for an aging industrial territory in need of huge investments.

The situation remained unchanged until 2022, when Putin’s expanding ambitions in Ukraine returned Crimea to the arena of conflict and turned it into a theater of war.

to threaten

Today, drones fly over Crimea that have destroyed oil refineries and critical infrastructure, and now threaten lines of communication by land (the corridor seized from Ukraine connecting Crimea to the mainland) and by sea (access to the Kerch Strait bridge from both Crimea and Russia’s Taman Peninsula).

The Crimean Peninsula is currently experiencing a shortage of fuel, electricity and water, and the authorities have taken the unprecedented step of evacuating children from summer camps, including the “Artek” camp, the most famous of them all, which hosts thousands of children every year, while tourists are leaving or canceling their reservations, and the damage to the main local industry is enormous.

About “El Pais”

. For many years, Crimea remained practically outside the scope of efforts to reach a settlement between Ukraine and pro-Russian forces.

. “Crimea” is witnessing a shortage of fuel, electricity, and water, while tourists are leaving or canceling their reservations, and great damage has been caused to the local industry.

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Reclaiming land

Over the past few months, Ukraine has managed to significantly slow Russian advances on the front lines, regaining territory in some areas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his speech the day before yesterday: “Russia no longer has any pretext to offer for its war except its ballistic missiles… (Russian President Vladimir) Putin still intends to (roll back) residential buildings instead of ending this war.” For its part, Moscow said that its recent attacks were in response to Ukrainian raids on Russia with drones.