The IMF is “moderately” optimistic about the performance of the global economy in 2025

The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 3.3 percent in 2025, but with greater differences between countries and regions.

In its updated report on the global economy, on Friday, the Fund stressed the continued risks represented by the return of inflation in the United States, for example, and the presence of deflation in other countries such as China, as well as the consequences of political instability in many major economies.

Previous forecasts dated back to October.

Of the world’s major economies, the United States witnessed the most noticeable revision, with growth expected to reach 2.7 percent this year, which actually increases the gap with other advanced economies, especially the European Union.

But the expectations came without taking into account the potential policies that US President-elect Donald Trump will implement, especially since the IMF does not yet have an accurate idea of ​​what will be put in place and in what way.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, stressed during a press conference that “this discrepancy is partly structural.”

The United States, for example, has benefited from higher productivity growth than Europe, especially in the technology sector, due to a favorable business environment and a larger capital market.”

It is a similar diagnosis to the one made by Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in September, which specifically called for strengthening the common banking and financial market.

The problem comes from the two major European economies, Germany and France, with lower expectations for them, in contrast to Spain, which has performed well in the past two years and the International Monetary Fund expects it to record growth of more than 2% this year (+2.3%).

Germany has witnessed a slight recession for two years in a row, and is expected to witness improvement with growth reaching 0.3%, a revision of 0.5 percentage points compared to the latest forecast in October.