The first wave of Trump customs duties is about to hit the global economy

Three weeks after US President Donald Trump actually announced the trade war with the whole world, new economic expectations and polls indicate the initial repercussions, according to the American Bloomberg Network.

International Monetary Fund and International Indicators

A few buildings from the White House, the International Monetary Fund is scheduled to reduce its expectations for economic growth in the new expectations issued on Tuesday.
The next day, the indicators of purchasing managers from Japan to Europe to the United States will provide the first glimpse of manufacturing and services since the launch of the global customs tariffs imposed by Trump – which was partially suspended – on April 2.
It also includes business polls from major economies.
Also read: The most poverty countries are threatened with paying the larger bill for Trump fees

Evaluation of fees damage

It is expected that the collected image of the finance ministers and central bank governors gathered in Washington will provide an opportunity to conduct preliminary assessments of the damage caused by Trump’s attempt to re -program the World Trade System.
“Our new growth forecast will include noticeable price discounts, but it will not include stagnation,” said Crystalina Georgiva, Director General of the International Monetary Fund.
She added: “We will also witness increases in inflation expectations for some countries and warn that the continuation of the high uncertainty increases the risk of financial market pressure.”

What analysts say?

The expectations of the International Monetary Fund tend to be optimistic during crises that are likely to have a disturbance. During four major crises, the Fund’s initial evaluation of the direct influence of global growth reduced 0.5 %.
Also read:
Whatever the degree of reduction in the International Monetary Fund for growth expectations at the beginning, history indicates that the final strike will be more severe.
The clouds that are rapidly greeted on the global economy will be cleaned, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last Wednesday that the US Central Bank “in a good position allows him to pend more clarity” before considering any changes to monetary policy while European Central Bank President Christine Lagard did not declare whether the uncertainty has reached its peak.
Meanwhile, Georgiviva hopes that the coming days, which will also witness the G20 financial ministers meeting to calm tension in global trade relations.
“We need a more flexible global economy, not to drift towards division,” said Georgeva. She added that Washington’s meetings “provide a vital forum for dialogue.”

United States and Canada data

In the United States, investors will monitor any additional deterioration in consumer confidence and inflation expectations when the University of Michigan rejoicing the revised April data on Friday.
The great evaluation book issued by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday will provide a view of regional economic conditions and a glimpse of the impact of government policy and uncertainty on business decisions.

Federal independence

Meanwhile, Trump raises new questions about whether he will seek to reduce the independence of the federal reserve as tensions escalate in his tense relationship with the central bank.
Austan Golsby, head of the Federal Reserve in Chicago, warned of any such efforts.
In Canada, the election campaign enters its last week, as polls indicate that liberals led by Prime Minister Mark Carne are advancing about five points, which makes them within the reach of the majority government amid a volatile trade war with the United States.

Korea and Japan movements

The largest commercial official in South Korea – Minister of Industry Ann Duke Jeon – Washington on Wednesday is scheduled for his third visit to the United States since Trump’s inauguration with the aim of starting negotiations at a time when his country seeks to be among the first countries to convince the American administration to alleviate or cancel customs tariffs on its shipments.
The Japanese Economic Newspaper Nikki reported that Japan has already started such talks and is now looking to review its car safety standards to reach an agreement.
On Friday, Japan is scheduled to unveil the consumer price index in Tokyo as well as sales of major stores.

Europe, the Middle East and Africa

With Monday’s holidays in most parts of Europe, and the Central Bank Governor meeting to attend the International Monetary Fund meetings will focus most of the attention of the United States.
The focus in the euro area is on the surveys reports, as the consumer confidence index in the region will be issued on Tuesday and the European Central Bank will publish its survey of professional predictors on the same day.
Lagarde said last week, after reducing interest rates that the wage tracking index, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, indicates a slowdown in wage growth.