Gold breaks the $4,100 per ounce barrier for the first time in its history after rising 56% this year

Today, Monday, the price of an ounce of gold broke the $4,100 barrier for the first time in its history, recording a new record in light of renewed trade tensions between the United States and China and expectations of a reduction in US interest rates, while silver also rose to its highest level ever.

Recent performance: impressive numbers

By 16:17 GMT, the spot gold price rose 2.4% to $4,114.31 per ounce, after touching a peak at $4,116.77. Gold futures for December delivery rose 3.3% to $4,133.90 per ounce.

An impressive rise in 2025

Gold has risen 56% this year, crossing the $4,000 threshold for the first time the previous week, driven by several factors including geopolitical and economic uncertainty, expectations of a US rate cut, and aggressive central bank buying.

Price Expectations: About $5,000?

Philip Strebel, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, believes that gold’s bullish momentum may continue, and we may see prices surpass $5,000 at the end of 2026. He explains that stable central bank purchases, strong flows into index funds (ETFs), US-China trade tensions, and the expectation of low interest rates all constitute structural support. For the market.

Geopolitical context and its impact

US President Donald Trump has reignited trade tensions with China, ending a fragile calm between the world’s two largest economies. On the other hand, traders are valuing a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, and a 100% probability in December. The nature of gold as a non-yielding asset makes it desirable in low interest environments.

Expectations of financial institutions

• Bank of America and Société Générale analysts expect gold to reach $5,000 in 2026.

• As for Standard Chartered, it raised its forecast to an average of $4,488 next year.

• This rally has momentum, but a short-term correction could be healthy to support the longer-term uptrend, says Suki Cooper, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered.

Silver and other elements

– Spot silver rose by 3.1% to $51.82, after recording a peak at $52.07, supported by the same factors that support gold and tight supply in the spot market. – Technical indicators indicate that they are in overbought areas, with the relative strength index (RSI) at around 80 for gold and 83 for silver. – As for platinum, it rose by 5% to $1,666, And palladium jumped 6.5% to $1,496.52.

Risk analysis and balance

Although the picture looks positive, markets often experience periods of correction after sharp rises. The strong momentum may continue, but investors need to pay attention to technical indicators, economic developments, and global monetary policies.

Summary and future expectations

Gold and silver recorded unprecedented records in light of a turbulent economic environment and global tensions. With traders and central banks in force, it appears that the uptrend is still in its infancy, but the road is not without risks. Ultimately, if monetary policies continue to be accommodative and institutional support, we may see gold break the $5,000 barrier in the coming years.