Europe needs a different approach to prevent the rise of right-wing populism

For the leaders running Western Europe’s three largest countries, things are getting worse, as they all witness political stagnation, declining living standards in their countries, and a decline in their global influence.

In Britain and France, their rivals from the populist right are eager to take power, while in Germany, the Alternative for Germany party may win two state elections next year.

The leaders of these three European countries warned of a catastrophe that might occur if the right-wing populist parties were victorious.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described his government as the last chance for “centrism.”

After his coalition lost the European elections last year, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of “the risk of a civil war.”

This month, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told The Economist that the British Reform Party represents a challenge to “the core of our identity as a nation.”

Different approach

The European populist right already has much to condemn, but talking about it in “apocalyptic” terms is doomed to failure. For their own sake, and for the sake of their countries, traditional politicians and their supporters urgently need a different approach.

On the one hand, all this hype seems like an attempt to divert attention from their failures. In Britain, after 14 years of stagnation under the Conservatives, Starmer’s Labor government is spending more on social welfare and will impose record taxes, even in the absence of rapid growth.

In France, Macron’s law raising the state retirement age has been abandoned, as his fifth prime minister in three years works to pass the budget in the National Assembly.

As for Germany, Meretz’s plan for the “autumn reforms” did not yield any significant results.

If the fate of Europe is at stake, why aren’t its leaders doing more?

On the other hand, their threats are not credible. Some right-wing populist governments are dangerous, others are not. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni runs Italy as any traditional politician would.

The members of Britain’s Reform Council have so far been fairly ordinary. It is true that the party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has seized control of the institutions and exploited them, but it may be defeated soon, and this does not seem to mean the end of democracy.

Legislative experience

Predicting disasters does not work, and as shown by the strength of populists in opinion polls, a large number of European voters do not believe what they are told.

At the same time, elites, aware of the fluctuations of power, are courting populists they had previously shunned. Jordan Bardella, of France’s National Rally party, has been meeting secretly with French business leaders.

Conservative politicians also defected from the Conservative Party in Britain to join the Reform Party, giving the party’s leader, Nigel Farage, the legislative and ministerial experience he desperately needs.

Germany is the only country where the main parties rule out working with the Alternative for Germany party. In fact, his deputies, who constitute the second largest group in Parliament, are prohibited from assuming the positions of Deputy Speakers of Parliament.

All of this helps explain why the so-called “demonization strategy” fails. European politicians say they stand for tolerance and workers, but when they describe a large portion of voters as fanatics, they too appear fanatic.

When they warn that populism will destroy their vision of what Europe should be, it emboldens voters who are desperate for change.

If “demonization” fails, what is the alternative? The answer begins with that desire for change that the populist right exploits so successfully, and with which The Economist agrees.

The next step is to examine the extent to which populists are likely to extricate Europe from its political stagnation. Participation can improve bad policies if populists are willing to change them, and if they refuse to do so, it exposes their folly.

Liberalization of markets

The most interesting populist project is the economy, and when the leaders of France’s National Rally, Britain’s Reform Party, and Germany’s AfD talk to businesses, they focus on liberalizing markets at the national level.

They say they want smaller government and lower taxes, and they look to the power of technology. They complain that their governments punish initiative and risk-taking, while spending too much on social welfare.

This is all welcome, but it is only half the story. For Britain, France and Germany, European economic integration is the most obvious source of growth.

However, the populists are on a collision course with the EU, which will degrade the single market and destroy growth.

The failure of Elon Musk’s “government efficiency” project in the United States shows how difficult it is to reduce the size of government well.

Jordan Bardella wants to impose a wealth tax in France, and he also opposes raising the retirement age.

After criticism for his promises of astronomical spending, Nigel Farage is now promising a more realistic budget for Britain, but the details are still vague.

Immigration

On other issues, populists exploit popular discontent, but propose illogical solutions.

Many Europeans are concerned about immigration, fearing it will harm public services and change national cultures. But the populists, and America’s warnings, have exceeded the facts, as legal immigration has reached its peak, and with the exception of Britain, illegal immigration to Europe has fallen to half of what it was in 2023. The views of the populists are also harsh. Talking about mass deportation or using language intended to make immigrants feel disdain is xenophobia. About “The Economist”

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National interests

Most Europeans don’t worry about geopolitics, but they should. At a time when the United States is less willing to lead the collective defense of Europe, populists echo the “dangerous” belief of US President Donald Trump, that the continent would be safer if it were less united, and if each country pursued its national interests. They also show blind weakness towards Russia and China.

There are 18 months left until the national elections in France, while they will be held in March 2029 in Germany, and in August 2029 in Britain, and a lot can change during that period.

If traditional politicians spent that period demonizing populists, they would no doubt feel better, but they would not help their countries. They would be wise to subject prospective governments to the democratic oversight they deserve.

. The British Labor government led by Starmer intends to impose record taxes even in the absence of rapid growth.

. In France, a law to raise the state retirement age was abandoned. In Germany, the Meretz reform plan yielded nothing.