Between optimism and caution… 7 forecasts that shape the global economy in 2026

As the end of 2025 approaches, the eyes of experts and analysts are turning to the new year, loaded with expectations that combine optimism about the global economy, and concern about the continuation of political and trade turmoil in various parts.

According to a report by the platform "VisualCapitaBest"Based on more than two thousand analyzes from reputable sources such as Morgan Stanley, the International Monetary Fund, and Goldman Sachs, it is expected that the year 2026 at the economic level will be the year "Confrontation with consequences" and"Replay risk"

Global Growth

Expected International Monetary Fund and Bank "Morgan Stanley"Global economic growth in 2026 ranges between 3.1% and 3.2%, in a scenario indicating an economic decline. "Nice" Without entering a recession.

Interest rates

Major central banks such as the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) and the European Central Bank are likely to continue to ease monetary policy during 2026, with expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates to a range of 3.0% – 3.25% by mid-year.

Gold reaches its super cycle

Gold remains a preferred option for investors in 2026, as it is expected "Morgan Stanley" The price of the yellow metal reached $4,500 per ounce, an increase of approximately 9% from current levels.

The World Gold Council indicates that gold will achieve more than 50 record levels in 2025, and may record its fourth strongest annual return since 1971.

And the driving factors are still Gold prices continue, led by central bank buying, geopolitical hedging, and concerns about financial sustainability. In the event of a global economic deterioration, the price of gold may rise by between 15 and 30% from its current levels.

Bitcoin

Notable forecasts for the price of Bitcoinin 2026, estimate "JP Morgan" That the price may reach $170,000, while the most optimistic forecasts from "Vandstraat" It puts the price in a range of $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year.

This optimism is due to factors such as an expected cut in US interest rates, increasing institutional investments through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the creation of state and federal reserves that add more confidence to cryptocurrencies.

Stocks: Challenging Optimism

There is a clear optimistic trend among analysts. "Wall Street" Regarding the performance of Stock markets, driven by the wave of artificial intelligence and supportive policies. Most major financial institutions expect gains above 10% for the index "Standard & Poor’s" By the end of 2026.

Artificial Intelligence

AI remains the dominant story for the third year in a row, but with a shift from the simple application stage to the stage of widespread integration and enterprise transformation.

Agent AI is expected to replace traditional AI tools. And you expect "Deloitte" 75% of companies may invest in autonomous agent artificial intelligence systems by the end of 2026.

The geopolitical and trade landscape: a more turbulent world

Experts agree that the high tariff system, especially in light of the second term of US President Donald Trump, has become a permanent reality.

The magazine warns "The Economist" The year 2026 will witness an escalation of tests and provocations that fall short of direct war but go beyond normal peaceful friction, especially in the South China Sea and Northern Europe.

The magazine indicated that the competition will accelerate through electronic operations, space-based intelligence, and drone technology.

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