2026 is a turning point in Trump’s second term and his political legacy

2026 represents a decisive year for the political standing of US President Donald Trump, and for the essence of the legacy of his second term. Perhaps the new year will also witness some kind of resistance against Trump’s wishes.

Democrats hope to break the dominance of his presidency by winning at least one seat in both houses of Congress in the midterm elections in November. The coming months will test the ability of the Constitution and centers of power, such as the courts, the business sector, the media, and cultural institutions, to withstand his excessive enthusiasm.

Since his return to the White House last year, Trump has dealt a harsh and unprecedented blow to the American and international systems. He has abolished agencies such as the US Agency for International Development, fired thousands of federal employees, directed government prosecutors against his opponents, made a mockery of justice by pardoning rioters and demonstrators (the events of January 6), and demolished the East Wing of the White House simply because he could.

Trump sent masked agents to American cities to arrest illegal immigrants, sometimes by mistake, and transferred some of them to a prison in El Salvador. He ordered the deployment of the National Guard in cities, and reduced funding for combating deadly diseases such as cancer, to urge elite universities to adopt his ideological orientations. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., to change vaccination schedules for children, at a time when the United States is witnessing the highest rate of measles cases in 30 years.

A series of victories

However, Trump’s supporters see in this escalation of unrest a string of victories shaking the country. Trump is boasting of the new tax cuts as a major victory, although some analysts believe that Americans will pay more in additional costs due to the tariffs than they will recover from the IRS. Despite White House claims of improving conditions for workers, the tax cuts mostly benefit the wealthy, but Trump also fulfilled his promise to close migrant crossings at the southern border, which was a major concern for voters in the 2024 elections.

On the external level, Trump has turned the balance of the global trading system upside down with a tariff war. He ignored his allies, glorified tyrants, and demanded that Canada join the United States to become the 51st state. He aspires to annex Greenland, while the diplomacy of US Navy warships off the coast of Venezuela highlights his quest to dominate the Western Hemisphere.

Another year of turmoil

It does not look like things will return to normal in 2026. Last month, in Pennsylvania, Trump said, “The storm is not over yet.” We have three years and two months to go.” And you know what that means in the age of Trump? Three years and two months are called “eternity,” and whether Trump will base many of his achievements that he achieved in his first year, after returning to his position in American life permanently, on major events in 2026.

The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, after the justices expressed doubts during a hearing in November. A defeat in the courts would throw his trade policy into disarray and could limit his use of emergency powers, potentially determining the course of the presidency itself.

Trump also asked the Supreme Court to revoke his birthright citizenship, another massive constitutional step, to bolster his deportation campaign. This case may raise doubts about the status of millions of people who were born Americans.

The courts will once again serve as the main internal restraint on Trump during most of 2026. The Just Security website is currently tracking 552 cases, 153 of which resulted in a permanent or temporary suspension of government work. Another 28 cases are still pending appeal. The administration has achieved victories in 113 cases, while 214 other cases await court rulings.

The hallmark of Trump’s second term will be the rapid and widespread use of the president’s executive power to overcome any resistance and create a sense of his inevitable and overwhelming power.

But perhaps things will not go as he wishes in 2026.

With the beginning of the new year, signs began to appear indicating that, despite his exaggerated presentation of reality, trends that often turn presidencies that begin with great enthusiasm into crumbling structures of arrogance and abuses have begun to take hold.

Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest levels in his second term, where it currently stands at only 38%, according to an average of opinion polls conducted by CNN. Republican lawmakers are rushing to retire for fear of a crushing defeat by Democrats in the midterm elections.

Public opinion concluded that Trump had broken his campaign promises to lower prices. After 10 years, divisions in the far-right Trump movement began to widen. Opponents of the “Make America Great Again” movement, such as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia, strongly criticize Trump’s large-scale moves at the global level, considering them a betrayal of the “America First” principle.

Deep state

Trump may be unique as an external champion against the “deep state,” but he now represents a dilapidated status quo, and this year he will need to accomplish a task that he failed during his first term, which is rebuilding his political credit in office.

This year may determine whether this president, who defied all other norms in office, is able to fill the power gaps that turn second-term presidents into helpless presidents.

It seems that people are now less afraid of Trump, after a year in which technology tycoons bowed down and major law firms surrendered to his pressure. An unprecedented Republican revolt led to Congress demanding the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, reigniting the fuse of a devastating conspiracy surrounding Trump’s former friendship with an accused woman molester. Local Republican legislators in Indiana thwarted Trump’s attempt to manipulate the map of electoral districts in their state to boost the Republican Party’s hopes in the midterm elections.

Voters took advantage of their first major opportunity to evaluate his presidency by choosing Democratic governors in New Jersey and Virginia. Trump was forced to reverse his position on one key issue, after a “reprimand” from the Supreme Court, as he announced on New Year’s Eve that he would withdraw National Guard forces from Los Angeles, Portland and Chicago.

The Democrats’ victory in the midterm elections will impose on Trump a series of difficult investigations in the final years of his term, but he will hardly help the besieged Republicans in Congress, as his indifference deprives them of new laws on which to rely in their election campaigns, and he prefers to rule by decrees instead of legislation after his approval of the “comprehensive and beautiful law.”

But Trump may already be risking political disaster at the start of the new year. The end of support for the Improved Affordable Care Act has sent health insurance prices skyrocketing for millions of voters, and his promise of better health care at lower prices is as much a “mirage” now as it was in his first term. Trump plunges his Republican allies into trouble every time he calls the affordability crisis a hoax.

*Stelvin Collinson

*Writer at CNN

About “CNN”

. Democrats hope to break the dominance of Trump’s presidency by winning at least one seat in both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.

. Voters took advantage of their first big opportunity to evaluate the Trump presidency by choosing Democratic governors in New Jersey and Virginia.