Oil prices jump 6% with the escalation of Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices jumped today, Thursday, with the escalation of Brentfutures rose $5.95, or 6.47%, to $97.93 a barrel by 09:15 GMT, after touching $100 a barrel earlier in trading. US West Texas Intermediate crude also rose by $5.25, or about 6%, to $92.50 per barrel.

Oil Prices

Last Monday, Brent crude oil recorded $119.50 per barrel, the highest level since mid-2022, before declining after US President Donald Trump’s statements that the war with Iran may end soon.

The International Energy Agency said on Thursday that the war in the Middle East is causing the greatest turmoil. To supply Oilin the history of global markets, a day after it agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, which is the largest withdrawal of this kind ever.

John Evans, an analyst at BVM, said that the markets are dealing with caution with the International Energy Agency’s announcement regarding the release of reserves, in light of the unclear timeline for implementation, adding that the prevailing assumption is to distribute the quantities over 90 days, equivalent to about 4.5 million barrels per day, according to Reuters.

Goldman Sachs expected the average price of Brent crude to reach about $98 per barrel during the months of March and April before falling to $71 in the fourth quarter, but it warned that if oil flows through the Strait are disrupted for a month, average prices during March and April could jump to $110 per barrel.

ING Bank analysts said that the only way to see oil prices decline sustainably is to resume the flow of oil through the Strait. Hormuz, adding that the failure of this means that prices may record higher levels than current.

In the developments of the conflict, security companies, ports and risk assessment companies said that Iranian boats loaded with explosives attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, causing them to catch fire and killing a crew member, after projectiles hit four ships in the Gulf waters yesterday, Wednesday.

On the supply side as well, sources said that China ordered an immediate ban on refined fuel exports during The month of March, in a proactive step to avoid a possible local fuel shortage as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Goldman Sachs raised its expectations for the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71 and $67 per barrel, respectively, compared to its previous expectations of $66 and $62, in light of the expectation that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be disrupted due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Brent crude prices have risen by more than 36% since the outbreak of war on February 28, while West Texas Intermediate crude has risen by about 39%. The two crude oil prices briefly exceeded $119 a barrel on Monday, their highest level since mid-2022.

The bank’s analysts said in a note on Thursday that they now assume a continued decline in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz for 21 days at about 10% of normal levels, followed by 30 days of gradual recovery, compared to their previous expectations that indicated a disruption lasting only 10 days.

The bank expects the average price to reach Brent crude oil reached about $98 per barrel during the months of March and April, before falling to $71 by the fourth quarter of the year.

In the upside risk scenario, where cross-strait flows may be disrupted for an entire month, the bank expects the average price during March and April to jump to $110 per barrel, before gradually declining to about $76 in the fourth quarter.

Analysts indicated that spot prices may exceed their peak recorded in a year. 2008 at $147 per barrel if cross-strait oil flows continue at low levels throughout March.

On the other hand, Citigroup also raised its forecast for Brent crude prices to $75 per barrel in the first quarter, $78 in the second quarter and $68 in the third quarter, compared to its previous forecast of $73, $70 and $62, respectively.

Oil prices rose on Thursday after security officials said Iraqis said that Iranian boats loaded with explosives hit two fuel tankers amid other disturbances in global supplies due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs requested an official apology from Iran for the damage caused to a Thai ship after it was targeted by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, which led to a fire and forced the crew to evacuate the ship.

The Ministry said that it is seeking clarifications from the Iranian ambassador. Thursday regarding the circumstances of the accident. In a statement carried by Tasnim News Agency, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said that the ship "It was targeted by Iranian fighter fire

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