The Hungarian elections…a new test of the limits of the European Union’s influence in member states

After the electoral experiences witnessed by Poland, Georgia, and Romania, it has become clear that the upcoming elections in Hungary may represent the next test of the issue of European Union interference in the electoral paths of member states or those close to it. This possibility raises increasing fears that Brussels and some European capitals may make the mistake of confusing what they hope will happen politically with what the actual reality on the ground may impose.

It seems that the prevailing desire among some European circles is simple and clear on its face. After four previous elections in which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán achieved sweeping victories, and after many years of tension and political conflict between him and the European Union institutions, and with the mounting criticism directed at him, many are adopting one vision of what might happen in the upcoming elections, which is his rival Peter Magyar achieving a landslide victory. Some are even treating this scenario as if it is a settled matter even before the election campaign officially begins.

Political reality

However, the political reality may be more complex than these optimistic expectations of Orban’s opponents reflect. There is a high probability that the elections will be very close, as happened in the 2022 elections. In such a scenario, the final result will be determined based on a range of political, ideological, geographic, and even generational factors, a pattern that has become familiar in many democratic countries.

On the one hand, there is a prime minister who has been in office for 16 years and is considered one of the most experienced leaders among his European counterparts. Orban is known for his confrontational positions with Brussels, and he has a well-established electoral base, especially among the elderly and in areas outside the capital, Budapest.

On the other hand, his competitor stands out, who lacks long political experience compared to Orban, and is also a controversial figure in some circles. However, he has a strong presence and is very active on social media, and is remarkably popular among young voters, especially in Budapest. He also has influence and support from the European People’s Party, and is known for his skill in political rhetoric and his ability to use language effectively in his campaigns.

Accordingly, the competition is likely to be very tight and ultimately decided at the ballot box. The possibility of victory for the ruling Fidesz party is still strong, as is also reflected in the results of some by-elections that took place recently.

anxiety

Of course, each party has the right to hold on to its hopes and expectations. But given the European Union’s record in dealing with some electoral processes during the recent period, some observers believe that there is reason to be concerned about the possibility that Brussels and some of its allies will try to turn their political desires into practical reality, whatever the means used to achieve this.

An example in this context is what happened in Poland, where the threat of financial pressure was used as an effective means, which is believed to have contributed to Donald Tusk’s rise to power. Some also point to what happened in Georgia, where the outgoing government was subjected to constant criticism and pressure, including street protests, in addition to raising doubts about the integrity of the electoral process.

As for Romania, some critics believe that the European Union overlooked the cancellation of the elections under a pretext described as inaccurate, while using the rhetoric related to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the issue of media disinformation as political factors in the discussion.

Pressure

In the Hungarian case, some analysts say that the European Union may use a wide range of tools and pressures, because Orbán’s government is considered by many in the European Parliament and by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and a number of European capitals, to be a fundamental obstacle to their political vision for the future of the Union.

Among the most prominent issues that deepen this dispute is the issue of Ukraine, which is considered a pivotal project for many European leaders, especially with regard to the idea of ​​accelerating its accession to the European Union. Orban is seen as one of the most prominent opponents of this trend, which in the eyes of his opponents makes him a major obstacle to this decision, which some consider bold, but at the same time it raises widespread controversy within Europe.

With elections six weeks away, political tensions have reached high levels. Some observers fear that all means will become permissible at this stage, whether before or after the elections, including indirect interventions, intense scrutiny of information, or even undeclared political and economic pressure.

Perfect opportunity

Some observers believe that the upcoming elections may constitute an ideal opportunity to try to isolate Orban permanently after his expected victory, and there are even those who propose the idea of ​​removing Hungary from the European Union as a possible option. However, such perceptions, according to their critics, may once again reflect confusion between political wishes and geopolitical reality.

While sovereign ideas are seeing increasing momentum in a number of countries, including the United States, the nature of international political alliances is also changing. Here, Orban is seen as one of the closest European allies of US President Donald Trump, which may give him additional political support in the face of his opponents within the European Union. About “Brussels Signal”

• Fears that Brussels and some European capitals may make the mistake of confusing political wishes with reality.