The loss of Republicans within “Trump’s circle” poses a challenge in the midterm elections

The Democratic candidate, Emily Gregory, realized that her surprise victory, last Tuesday night, in the US state of Florida, was important when her son, who is in the third grade, said to her: “Mom, I was really surprised.”

Gregory, a first-time candidate and fitness company owner, defeated Republican John Maples, whose policies President Donald Trump has endorsed.

The two were competing in a special election for a district that includes Trump’s home in Palm Beach County, but the victory of Democrat Gregory was a surprise, despite Palm Beach’s leaning to the left. This district was a stronghold for Republicans, who enjoy a significant advantage in voter registration, as the Republican who left the seat last year won by 19 percentage points in 2024.

“This is part of a trend that we have seen across the country,” said Representative Susan DelBene, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, adding: “If you talk to people on the ground across America and see what happened in the special elections, you will find that it is a consistent trend, and Republicans know that they are losing.”

anxiety

On the other hand, the Democrats did not hide their enthusiasm, and Representatives Lois Frankel and Kathy Castor, who represent electoral districts that include special election seats in Palm Beach and Tampa, Florida, respectively, began the weekly Democratic caucus meeting in the House of Representatives by celebrating the victory.

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries reminded his colleagues that Democrats have regained 30 legislative seats across the country since Trump took office last year.

While some Republicans have argued that the results of the small special election are being inflated, others privately acknowledge that these indicators are troubling for their party.

“Floridians want lower costs, and they want their leaders to focus on making Florida more accessible and solving real problems, not political issues,” Gregory said, adding: “That’s what people really want their leaders to focus on.”

Symbolism

Observers say that Gregory’s victory is full of symbolism, as Trump’s neighbors rejected his political style in a special election, and the president, as a resident of Palm Beach, will be represented by a Democrat in the Florida House of Representatives.

But this district, and Florida in general, represent the kind of places where Democrats have lost ground in the past decade, and Democrats acknowledge that in such places they will have to improve their standing with voters to have a chance of achieving surprise victories during the midterm elections next November.

Former Republican congressman David Jolly, who is running for governor of Florida as a Democrat, said: “In Florida and nationally, you don’t have to be a Democrat to vote for a Democrat, that’s what we’re seeing.” He explained: “What happened Tuesday night is consistent with a huge trend toward change here. Voters are telling us they need to pay more attention to the economy and health care.”

Given that Republicans had an advantage in the number of registered voters in the district of more than 10%, Gregory expressed optimism that registered Republicans participated in the elections in which the Democratic candidate ultimately won, which indicates that some Republicans voted for the Democratic candidate, and most Republicans do not want to talk about Gregory’s victory.

Non-recognition

Trump, who is always quick to use social media, did not mention the Republican loss in his constituency, despite his endorsement of Maples and a special appearance with him at his residence in Florida, before Election Day.

Maples has not yet conceded his defeat to Gregory, and he and the White House did not respond to a request for comment.

“Politicians in the White House realize how important turnout is in the midterm elections, which is why they went so far as to hold a midterm convention to emphasize the importance of voter participation,” said longtime Republican activist Chris Buck.

He added: “Anyone who says that the turnout rate in the general elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate can be known based on a small number of local elections does not know what he is talking about.” About the Washington Post

• Democrat Emily Gregory, a candidate for the first time in a special election, defeated John Maples, whom Trump supports and adopts his policies.