Expectations of a slowdown in German export growth with a decline in Chinese and American demand

Trade wars and increasing protectionism are expected to significantly reduce the growth of German industrial exports, according to expert estimates.

The auditing and economic consulting firm Deloitte stated, in a new study, that the growth of German exports until 2035 is expected to reach only about 1.3% annually, compared to 2.1% during the past 10 years. The study attributed this slowdown mainly to the decline in the role of previous growth engines, led by China and the United States.

Instead of recording increases, experts expect exports to the two countries to decline, as German exports to the United States are likely to decline at a rate of 1.5% annually, and to China at a rate of 1.7%. With regard to America, this decline appears to be less severe than what was expected a year ago, as in March 2025, Deloitte had expected an annual decline of 3.2% in German business with the American market.

In contrast, experts expect significant increases in trade within Europe, with France already overtaking China in 2025 as Germany’s second most important trading partner.

Oliver Bendisch, head of the industrial consulting department at Deloitte, said: “It is expected that German industry exports to the Netherlands and Britain will also exceed their counterparts to China during the next few years.” Experts also expect growth in German trade with Poland, at an average rate of approximately 3% annually, with it also surpassing China as a market for German exports by 2035.