“Black Swan” shocks the aluminum market amid scarcity of supplies and high prices

The global aluminum market is witnessing severe unexpected disruptions, known as the impact effect "Black swan"Volatility caused by the Middle East war has led to a supply shock that will lead to severe shortages this year, according to the chief metals analyst at the company. "Mercuria" For commodity trading.

It means effect "Black swan" Major financial crises that occur suddenly, such as the 2008 global crisis and the Corona pandemic, which changed the course of the global economy.

Data indicate that the Middle East region acquires about 7 million metric tons of annual smelting production capacity Metalsand mining in "Mercuria"On the sidelines of the summit "Financial Times" Global Commodities in Lausanne, Switzerland: "The magnitude of the supply shock we are seeing in the aluminum market is likely the largest supply shock the base metals market has experienced since 2000."

He added to Reuters: "We are already in the midst of a black swan. No one would have expected something of this magnitude"LME, taking it to a four-year high of $3,672 per ton on April 16.

Premiums paid over the LME price for physical metals also rose, reaching a record high of $1.14 per pound, or $2,521.50 per ton, in the United States, and to a nearly four-year high of $599 per ton in Europe in early April.

Estimations indicate "Mercuria" According to data from the Trade Data Observatory, a specialized information provider, the Middle East accounted for approximately 22% of the total 3.4 million tons of primary aluminum and alloys that the United States imported last year, and Europe imported about 1.2 million tons, or 18.5%, of primary aluminum and alloys from the Middle East last year.

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