Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remains distant amid escalating disputes

Although the European Union finally agreed to grant Ukraine a loan worth 90 billion euros, and this step was decided after Hungary retracted its opposition position, a more complex and sensitive issue has emerged on the diplomatic scene, which is the issue of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. It has become clear that Ukraine will not be able to obtain full membership in the Union within the next year.

Russia will also not repay the loan, a proposition repeated by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to justify what is seen as a diplomatic failure ahead of the European Union summit, which was held last December.

During that meeting, Belgium stopped a plan to seize its frozen Russian assets, and it does not appear that it is currently ready to change its position, especially after the European Union was able to secure the loan with its own resources.

Positions

When Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever arrived at the informal European Union summit held in Cyprus last Thursday, he said that dealing with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who lost the general elections, is not always easy, but he also pointed out the presence of other European leaders and countries that do not adopt positions consistent with the general consensus.

This statement clearly reflects the nature of the current relationship between Brussels and Kiev, where there is a general, but fragile, consensus regarding continued support for Ukraine, without a clear vision for the end of the war, something that European Union leaders have not yet explicitly defined.

Important questions are raised about the ability of major countries such as Germany and France to increase their contributions to the Union budget, in light of the economic challenges they are currently facing.

Ukraine’s accession will also entail additional financial burdens, as countries currently benefiting from the Union budget, such as Poland and Hungary, will be forced to reduce their shares of aid, in addition to the fact that the entry of a large country like Ukraine will affect the voting balances within the European Council.

The German position is the necessity of making reforms to the voting system within the Foreign Affairs Council as a basic condition for any new expansion of the Union, but achieving this requires a comprehensive amendment to the European Union treaties, which is a complex and long path.

Cohesive image

Although the European Union appears coherent to public opinion, especially through the official meetings of its leaders with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, tensions and disagreements have begun to appear behind the scenes.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Roginen accused Zelensky of exerting pressure through his warnings of a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states, a criticism also shared by Estonian officials.

Previously, Zelensky succeeded in convincing the Europeans that Ukraine defends the entire continent, and that Europe’s security is directly linked to the outcome of this Russian war, but this rhetoric has gradually begun to lose its influence, especially as the conflict enters a state of stalemate that is costly to both parties.

Economy

On the economic level, Western reports on the Russian economy are often classified within the framework of propaganda, including figures related to losses.

Although the Russian economy witnessed a slowdown during the first quarter of the year, the latest estimates of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies indicate an expected growth of 1.2% in 2026, which was achieved even before the rise in oil prices.

This raises several questions, especially as some Western media continue to predict the collapse of the Russian economy, while its growth rates sometimes exceed those in Germany, despite the broad sanctions imposed on it.

On the other hand, Ukraine suffers from a severe shortage of air defense systems, in addition to escalating internal political disputes between Zelensky and his parliamentary majority.

Although the European loan to Ukraine was necessary to avoid an immediate economic collapse, Russia is still spending much larger sums on its war effort, benefiting from the revenues from its oil exports, especially after granting some countries exemptions to import Russian oil, during the period of tensions related to the Iran war. About “Ann Heard”

• Ukraine’s accession to the European Union will entail additional financial burdens, as countries benefiting from the Union’s budget will be forced to reduce their shares of aid.

• Although the European loan to Ukraine was necessary to avoid an immediate economic collapse, Russia still spent much larger sums on its war effort.