"Foreign Policy": What does Trump’s victory mean for China, the Middle East, and Ukraine?

Foreign Policy magazine saw The American newspaper said that the victory of former US President Donald Trump in the presidential elections that took place a few days ago represents the beginning of another journey of “fluctuations in American foreign policy,” as the elected president is ready to restore the distinctive features of his first term, which are “a trade war with China, and a passion for… With powerful officials, and deal-making diplomacy characterized by rebellion against tradition.” 

 

But Trump’s second term, according to the American magazine, “It will bring new challenges, in addition to the two ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. While Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine before taking office, he has not yet presented any detailed plan, and his plans to bring peace to the Middle East are also vague.”

Regarding the future of American foreign policy, “Foreign Policy” sees: Trump’s first term showed that “his own desires often contradict the agenda of his advisors,” but the second term “may have a tighter grip on the steering wheel as president, amid the likelihood that he will surround himself with a more loyal circle of advisors.”

 

As for China, Trump’s second term will likely continue to define China as the “most prominent national security challenge to the United States,” with trade As a first priority, which means relaunching the trade war that he started in 2018.

 

The American magazine justified what it said by referring to the call on Trump’s presidential campaign website to reduce the United States’ dependence on… China in all basic goods, amid expectations that customs tariffs will reach at least 60% on all imports from China, with the state of complete separation approaching between the two largest economies in The world.

 

Apart from trade, Trump’s biggest sticking point in his dealings with China may be “how he manages the Taiwan file”.. During his campaign, he said that “he must “Taiwan has to pay us for defense,” which, according to some China experts, indicates a belief that Trump will seek some kind of agreement with Taiwan in exchange for more defense support.  

 

Regarding Trump’s policy regarding defending Taiwan, Trump has adhered in interviews to the old policy of strategic ambiguity, as when he was asked in an interview with the Wall Street Journal: Journal" Asked whether the US military would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack or blockade, Trump responded by saying: “I wouldn’t have to,” meaning that Trump is banking on the idea that his personal unpredictability provides a special layer of ambiguity, whether Strategic or not.

 

As for the Middle East, one of the most pressing foreign policy issues on Trump’s desk will be escalating tensions in the Middle East, and resolving Israel’s wars with Hamas in Gaza. And “Hezbollah” In all of Lebanon.

 

But so far, it is unclear what role, if any, the next administration will play in trying to end this war.. During his first term, Trump verbally supported a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict while granting Israel a series of long-sought diplomatic prizes such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, cutting funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), and, in contravention of decades of US policy, he admitted. of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the declaration that Israeli settlements in the West Bank do not violate international law.

 

While Netanyahu and Trump’s relationship was warm during his first term, things worsened after The Israeli Prime Minister congratulated Joe Biden on his victory in the 2020 elections, a day after the elections ended, which sparked anger. Trump. On the Iranian regime, and assassinated the commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, in an air strike in January 2020. While speaking to reporters last September, Trump said that he would be open to concluding a new deal with Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon, but Without providing further details about what such negotiations might entail.

 

"Foreign Policy" indicated While Trump has sought to reduce US military intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, he is not completely averse to using US military force in pursuit of clear goals, and this may include preventing Iran from joining the short list of countries that possess nuclear weapons. As for Ukraine, Trump criticized US funding for the Ukrainian war effort, and called on Europe to shoulder more of the burden of supporting Kiev. Trump described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “the greatest salesman on the face of the Earth.” Because of the amount of money he was able to get for Ukraine from the Biden administration, although he (Trump) added that “that doesn’t mean I don’t want to help him (Zelensky),” even though Trump himself has expressed doubts about Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia.

 

The American magazine pointed out that Trump claimed that it would take only 24 hours to negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and that he would accomplish this before his inauguration in January. In the future, but details about how he intends to end the war are still rare. 

 

In an interview conducted in July 2023 with Fox News, Trump said he would force Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table by telling the Ukrainian leader that Kiev would not get more US aid, and by telling the Russian leader that Washington would significantly increase its aid to Kiev if an agreement was not reached.< /p>

 

Vice President-elect J.D. Vance presented More details about what such a deal might look like. Although he said that Trump would leave it to the two warring countries as well as Europe to work out the details of the peace agreement, he (Vance) suggested that the matter would likely require the establishment of a demilitarized zone along the lines The current battle, which allows Ukraine to retain its sovereignty while forcing it to give up some of its territory that is currently in Moscow’s hands, as well as ensuring that Ukraine remains neutral, which means that it will not join NATO or "Allied institutions" The other.

 

Observers believe that this perception is very similar to the conditions set by Putin for a ceasefire, which were rejected by Ukraine and many of its supporters, including the United States, Italy, and Germany.< /p>

 

Regarding NATO, the US president-elect is far from being the biggest supporter of NATO, and the alliance is not a fan of it. Also. 

 

The American magazine noted that from Russia’s perspective, Trump’s second term may pave the way for friendlier relations between Washington and Moscow, as the Kremlin has long favored the Republican leader over His Democratic opponents. However, the Russians are hesitant about Trump’s promises to end the conflict immediately, as evidenced by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s statement in September that this kind of thinking falls within the "world of fantasy". p>

Finally, the next few period will determine the nature and future of American foreign policy, and whether Trump will follow the same approach as his first term or there will be a change in approach in some files and thorny and hot issues in Many hotspots around the world.

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