US missile deterrence faces unprecedented challenges

US missile defenses are facing mounting criticism as legacy systems and interceptor missiles struggle to confront nuclear threats.

This month, The Atlantic Council issued a report saying that US missile defenses are insufficient against nuclear-armed adversaries, such as China, Russia, and North Korea.

The report states that while the 2022 National Defense Strategy calls for keeping pace with North Korea’s missile capabilities, while relying on strategic deterrence against China and Russia, this approach has become insufficient due to the increasing complexity and number of missile threats.

While the report indicates that the plan of the outgoing US President Joe Biden’s administration to increase ground-based interceptor missiles by 2028 is a step forward, it raises concerns about strategic stability with China and Russia.

The report calls for a multi-layered missile defense system that integrates advanced technologies and offensive measures to prevent missile launches. It also emphasizes the importance of protecting US nuclear forces and command and control systems to ensure deterrence.

The report recommends increasing missile defense funding to 1% of the annual defense budget, and enhancing transparency with China and Russia to mitigate arms race concerns. The ultimate goal, he says, is to create a robust defense system that complicates adversaries’ attack plans and reassures U.S. allies. The Atlantic Council report concludes that America’s national security and its ability to project power globally could be significantly undermined without addressing these threats.

initiative

US missile defense may not have been a priority since the administration of former President Donald Reagan. In 1983, Reagan unveiled the Strategic Defense Initiative, a futuristic, multi-layered missile defense system based on space technologies. However, the Strategic Defense Initiative was criticized for its high costs and the fact that It cannot be tested without a nuclear attack.

The idea of ​​protection from nuclear attack was also inconsistent with the concept of deterrence, as it encouraged the Soviets to consider launching a first strike before the United States could complete the system. US interest in the Strategic Defense Initiative waned when the START I Treaty was signed in 1991.

Technical risks

Moreover, experts Robert Peters and Chiara Gentry stated, in a report issued by the Heritage Foundation, in June 2024, that despite spending more than $170 billion in the past two decades, US missile defense capability has remained essentially unchanged since 2004.

Peters and Gentry point out that the 44 strategic bombers the United States possesses may not be enough to counter a limited nuclear strike on the US mainland and future threats.

The two experts also say that increasing the number of strategic bombers would cost $90 million each, which is an expensive endeavor.

While the next-generation interceptor missile program aims to strengthen US missile defense, a report issued by the US Government Accountability Office in June 2024 stated that the program faces risks due to overlapping design, production, and scheduling activities and increased costs resulting from supply chain problems.

According to the accounting office’s report, the US Missile Defense Agency did not fully address technical risks or performance requirements related to the threat, raising concerns about the program’s ability to meet its 2028 deployment deadline.

Despite these capability gaps, US missile defense poses a significant challenge to nuclear-armed adversaries, potentially leading to an offensive arms race.

In a report for the Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, published in 2024, strategic expert Ottawa Sanders said that China fears that American missile defenses will undermine its nuclear deterrence by intercepting a first American strike using most of the missiles it possesses, thus deteriorating its ability to respond to a second strike.

Likewise, Sanders believes that Russia is concerned that US missile defenses may erode its ability to respond to any US counterstrike.

Nuclear expansion

On the other hand, North Korea aims to keep the US mainland at risk of a direct nuclear attack, and threatens to use nuclear weapons to force the latter to make decisions favorable to the former. However, it is not certain that US missile defense will be able to thwart North Korea’s nuclear threats.

These potential adversaries have developed their nuclear arsenals in ways that could defeat American missile defense.

According to the 2024 Chinese Military Power Report issued by the US Department of Defense, China’s nuclear expansion is progressing rapidly, and its stockpile exceeded 600 operational warheads in 2024, while it is expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030.

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences report states that the Chinese army’s missile units are establishing 320 solid fuel silos, and doubling their strength from liquid fuel silos to 50 silos, which enhances their ability to provide “early warning of a counter-strike.”

The US Department of Defense says that China possesses 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying several warheads that can operate independently.

According to the report, the Chinese naval nuclear arsenal includes six submarines armed with submarine-launched ballistic missiles. It also states that China is developing tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic bombing systems, indicating ambitions for strategic parity.

Experts reported in an article for the Heritage Foundation that China’s goal of achieving a “world-class” army by 2049 may prompt the strengthening of the nuclear arsenal. However, China may work to build its nuclear forces for other purposes, including a possible invasion. For Taiwan, in addition to its goal of having a sophisticated army and as a defensive response to American missile defense systems.

Modernization efforts

In the case of Russia, a report issued by the US Congressional Research Service, in November 2024, stated that Russia has about 1,710 nuclear warheads, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and ballistic missiles launched from submarines and strategic bombers.

The report highlights Russian modernization efforts, with a focus on heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles of the “Smart”, “SS-27” and “Borai” type.

The report says that Russia’s strategy to confront US missile defenses includes developing advanced delivery systems such as supersonic glide vehicles, nuclear-powered winged missiles and autonomous underwater systems. These innovations are intended to ensure Russia’s ability to respond after the first strike, thus maintaining strategic deterrence. It is noteworthy that Russia deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and ignored American efforts to limit these weapons. About “Asia Times”

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Strategic capabilities

A report by the US Congressional Research Service stated that Russian officials expressed concerns about the ability of their strategic forces to survive, due to American progress in missile defenses and long-range conventional strikes.

As for North Korea, a report by nuclear scientists, published in July 2024, stated that North Korea may possess enough fissile material for up to 90 nuclear warheads, and about 50 of them are likely to be assembled. Scientists say that North Korea is working to enhance Its strength is equipped with new long-range solid-fuel strategic missiles, short-range tactical missiles, and naval missiles.

. It is not certain that US missile defense will be able to thwart North Korea’s nuclear threats.

. China is developing tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic bombing systems, demonstrating ambitions of strategic parity.