"Le Point": The coming weeks are crucial to determining the future of European/American relations

The arrival of US President Donald Trump to the White House on January 20, 2025 sparked mixed reactions in Brussels… His first announcements set the tone: withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization… but a trade war with Europe did not occur until Now, no exciting statement has been issued regarding Ukraine… Is this a short break before the storm?

 

This is how “Le Point” magazine began… The French weekly published an analytical article on American-European relations, noting – in this regard – that the Trump administration has not yet responded to any invitations to hold a meeting with European institutions, and neither Ursula von der Leyen, President of the Commission, nor Antonio Costa, President of the Council, have been able to secure… Appointment for a meeting in Washington… The same applies to the High Representative, Kaia Callas… Donald Trump has other priorities: expelling foreign criminals from his country, dismantling the drug trade, and thus organizing mass deportations to Mexico. As for Europe, we will see later.

 

The magazine, written by its writer, Emanuel Beretta, said that the Europeans will certainly not remain silent forever, indicating that Ursula von der Leyen’s approach was clear… in her speech. At the Davos Forum, it anticipated Washington’s trade hostility, but preferred to turn to the logic of the American president. It is trying to calm businessman Trump by reminding us of the richness of fleeting relations. The President of the European Commission recalled that there are about 3.5 million Americans working for European companies in the United States, and an additional million American jobs linked to trade with Europe. Not to mention that the United States supplies Europe with more than 50% of its liquefied natural gas needs, and American medicines are manufactured using chemicals and laboratory tools that come from our side of the ocean. Atlantic.

 

In short, bilateral trade rises to 1.5 trillion euros and represents 30% of the volume of global trade. Certainly, Europe enjoys a surplus, but it imports from the United States twice as much as it imports. From the Asia-Pacific region of digital services… and it seems that the President of the Commission wanted all of this to question " Why do we spoil all this with bad fights?

Ursula von der Leyen did not stop bending and turning across the Atlantic until the second part of her thinking, and in a brief way. She points out that “the rules governing relations between global powers are changing.” We shouldn’t take anything too seriously. Although some people in Europe do not like this new reality, we are prepared to live with it. »

The President of the European Commission confirms that Europe is ready for change, noting that the European Union demands a "pragmatic approach" But he “does not abandon his principles.” .. He will not go into details before the negotiations.. It is not clear what Ursula von der Leyen meant when she concluded by saying, “The time has come to start a dialogue that goes beyond blocs and prohibitions.” It may appear to be a reference to other trade agreements that need to be finalized with countries in South America.

In the European Parliament, European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic did not deviate from this line. He says, “What was true yesterday remains true today and will remain true tomorrow,” as if he wanted to downplay the importance of the Trump rupture. The Slovakian, who knows Washington well, also emphasizes the strength of transatlantic economic relations to mitigate Trump’s protectionist enthusiasm, with numbers slightly different from those of the president. von der Leyen. 

Sefcovic says that 16 million jobs depend on transatlantic trade, but he does not say that the majority of these jobs are in Europe…

The most stringent response came from the social democrats. European MP Raphael Glucksmann believes that the coming confrontation goes far beyond the framework of traditional trade or diplomatic tensions. His reading of the Trump-Musk strategy was unambiguous, but it was frank: “Musk has announced his colors. He does not believe at all that what happened was an American election. It is believed that it is a civil war sweeping the entire West. »

To quote a revealing tweet from the CEO of X: “As long as we do not eradicate the awakened virus in Europe, our power will be uncertain in the United States. »

As for the European People’s Party, the situation is more sensitive. The right-wing European party – which is traditionally Atlantic – is having difficulty finding the right tone. Some of its members, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, share Trump’s positions on… Migration or “awakening” Others – and he is the most moderate – are concerned about the threats facing NATO and its support for Ukraine. Manfred Weber, head of the European People’s Party, offers a three-stage strategy. First, show strength on the digital level, with strong support for the Social Democratic Party in the face of the American giants. Hence, accepting American criticism of European defense turned into an opportunity to strengthen the strategic independence of the European Union. Finally, diversifying trade partnerships, pointing to agreements with Mercosur, Mexico and Malaysia.

This position reflects the balance of the European People’s Party… While seeking to maintain bridges with Washington, Manfred Weber is trying to distance himself from the European far right, which He is courting Trump…and he describes the Alternative for Germany party – the far-right party in Germany – as “Putin’s squad.” He asserts that “the patriots (Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, Matteo Salvini, Jett Wilders) are not America’s true friends.”

Several themes emerge immediately. Support Ukraine first, at a time when Trump threatens to cut off US aid. The European Union has 200 billion euros of frozen Russian assets that can be moved, but it is still hesitant to take this major legal step.

In the face of this ambiguous new era, Valerie Heyer, head of the centrist group, calls for a European response based on Three axes: unity in the event of a trade war, strengthening strategic independence, especially in defense matters, and consistent support for Ukraine. European MP Raphael Glucksmann also proposes to compensate for any American defection. Possibly by using $200 billion of Russian assets frozen in Europe in order to mobilize them for the benefit of Ukraine.

On the economic level, Haier rejects any forms of bilateral negotiations that would weaken the European Union… and says: If Donald implements… Trump’s protectionist threats, it will call for a firm response, expressing its belief that the American President will find – in this case – difficult to give an explanation to American companies that will face difficulties in… Access to the European market  In his view, the slogan “America First” should be found… His response in Europe, which asserts itself as the “leader of the free world,” especially through the strict application of the Social Democratic Law in the face of American technology giants.

And in the coming weeks, European unity will be at stake…a difficult equation considering Some member states – Hungary and Italy on top – tend to play their own card with Washington.

The magazine concluded its article by noting that the coming weeks will be decisive…the European Council The February 3rd special on defense and security will give a first indication of the ability of the 27 countries to emerge as a united front. Until then, Brussels is holding its breath, knowing that the next four years will reshape the world and place Europe deeply in the aggressive launch of empires. The Great Reconstructed.

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