Kazerron

Zahra Habib

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Expectations to grow global demand to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025

The businessman and CEO of Ramses Engineering Company, Zuhair Kazerouni, stated that if the financial expectations of oil prices are measured, and the deductions that will be made by an escalating rate of his revenues in favor of the Reserve Fund for future generations, according to the average prices compared to the previous ten years, and the data for the next ten years, depending on the average Oil prices that range from $ 60 to $ 80, it is based on the average expected oil prices, and with the application of the new deduction mechanism with an escalating rate of oil revenues in favor of the future generations reserve fund, the fund will witness financial flows ranging from 1.5 billion to 2 billion dollars over the tenth of ten Next years, depending on price and production levels.

He noted that oil prices for 2025 depends largely on global political and economic variables, as the new American administration, tensions in the Middle East, and OPEC policies will play a major role in determining prices. Pointing out that the expectations of this year mention that oil prices will range from 74 to 80 dollars a barrel, and this matter is dependent as we mentioned in advance of the global political situation and the new American administration.

Kazerouni stressed that these flows represent a strategic investment to ensure the stability of the Bahraini economy, as directing these returns to smart and promising investments in the technology and renewable energy sectors will enhance the power of the fund, and increase its future returns, adding that the trend towards promoting the sustainability of financial resources through the Future Generations Fund reflects A wise vision towards securing the future of future generations, and ensuring the ability of the Bahraini economy to face any future economic fluctuations.

His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, the king of the country, had issued a law to deduct an ascending percentage of oil revenues in favor of the future generations reserve fund, starting with one dollar per barrel when the price does not exceed 60 dollars, and gradually increases to reach 5 dollars per barrel when The price of oil exceeds 120 dollars, and these amounts may not be reduced, increased, or disposed of reserve funds for non -investment operations, except by law.

In addition, the report of the Ministry of Finance and the National Economy for the third quarter of the year 2024 expected that the growth of the global economy will witness stability at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025. The global demand for oil increased in 2024 by 1.6 million barrels per day, driven by increasing demand from non -member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

He pointed out that, according to the report of the “global economy prospects issued by the International Monetary Fund in October 2024, growth rates were recorded in contrast to the regional region, where expectations included a moderate recovery in the euro and sub -Saharan Africa, and slowed down in the emerging Asian markets, with a look Positive to the Middle East and Central Asia, while growth forecasts in the United States of America were raised to 2.8% in the year 2024 and 2.2% in the year 2025, bringing the only advanced economy to raise its expectations.

In the short and medium term, global growth is expected to remain limited compared to historical levels, as the International Monetary Fund estimated an annual growth rate of about 3.1% during the next five years. While he pointed to the elasticity of some emerging economies such as Brazil, India and Southeast Asian countries, despite the continued risk associated with geopolitical conflicts, commercial tensions, and increased customs duties. He also pointed to the elasticity of the main emerging markets, such as Brazil, India and Southeast Asia, thanks to the increase in local consumption, the improvement of exports in a way that exceeds expectations, the strength of local demand, and the continued implementation of economic reforms.

On the oil market level, expectations indicate a decline in demand amid low imports for some major markets such as China. According to the OPEC report issued in December 2024, the growth expectations for global oil demand growth for 2024 were reduced to 1.6 million barrels per day after expectations indicated a growth estimated at 2.2 million barrels last July, which reflects a 27% decrease over five Months.

It is expected that the demand will grow in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development by a slight rate of about 0.1 million barrels per day, while the demand in non -member countries is expected to witness a significant increase of 1.5 million barrels per day. With regard to the year 2025, the expectations of global oil demand growth were modified to 1.4 million barrels per day, with demand estimates in non -member countries continued.

With regard to Bahrain, the report of the Ministry of Finance and National Economy stated that the percentage of the contribution of oil activities reached 13.7% in the gross domestic product of fixed prices during the third quarter of the year 2024, and recorded a decline of 8.1% on an annual basis to reach 509.5 million Bahraini dinars at fixed prices, as a result For maintenance work in the Abu Sa`fa field.

The report published on the Ministry of Finance website indicated that it is expected that OPEC will start alleviating the restrictions of productive shares by 2025, which may lead to a growing supply growth for demand growth.

While touched on the initial data of the national accounts issued by the Information Authority and the e -government, where the gross domestic product recorded 2.1% growth compared to the third quarter of the year 2023, while non -oil activities achieved a growth of 3.9% on an annual basis, while oil activities recorded a decline 8.1% on an annual basis.

On the other hand, economic performance at current prices recorded a decline of 0.9%, as a result of the decline in oil activities by 14.0%, while non -oil activities recorded a growth of 1.5%on an annual basis.

And based on the estimates of the Ministry of Finance and National Economy, the local product is expected to register for the year 2025, and in conjunction with the completion of the project to update the Babco refinery refinery, a growth of 3.5%, and it is expected that non -oil activities will achieve a growth of 4.4%. It is worth noting that the project to update the refinery Bahrain, as the largest strategic project in the history of the Kingdom of Bahrain, and in the energy sector, and with the 15 sub -stations and 21 new treatment units to be able to refine quantities of up to 400 thousand barrels per day, will launch a new stage in the ancient and distinguished historical march of the oil and gas sector in The Kingdom of Bahrain, a development that would contribute to enhancing the contributions of the oil and gas sector to the national economy, and providing more job opportunities for Bahraini citizens.