Europe will continue to impose sanctions against Russia

With US President Donald Trump seeking to develop the necessary plans to conclude an agreement with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, on Ukraine, it seems that the United States’s retreat from its sanctions against Russia, close to the possibility, and will make such a scenario Europe continue to impose its sanctions on Russia on its own, which is an unprecedented situation, that would raise the question about whether the European mono measures will affect Moscow significantly or not, and the answer It is yes, especially if European sanctions focus on trade.

The power of Western sanctions in Washington and Europe is to benefit from the use of the US dollar in commercial affairs, in addition to the dominance of the “Atlantic” economy to trade, investment and technology around the world.

In the case of Russia, numbers show that Europe has greater influence than the United States over Russia. Since early 2022, Russia has abandoned the US dollar in an attempt to protect itself from sanctions, which led to Russian companies using the US dollar at the present time in less than 5% of its cross -border trade. Moreover, the trade relations between Russia and the United States remained small. In 2021, the last year before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the United States acquired only 3.6% of Russia’s exports and 5.9% of its imports.

In contrast, the European Union was the largest commercial partner of Moscow, providing it with nearly 40% of its imports, and acquired almost the same percentage of its exports.

These numbers highlight the influence of the European Union over Russia through commercial sanctions. Let us take Russia’s imports first, the European Union sanctions cover 54% of Russia’s imports from the European Union (based on 2021 data), causing a headache for many Russian companies that depend on high -tech goods made in the European Union.

By the end of 2024, for example, the Russian airline “S Sevin” has stopped 31 out of 39 Airbus A320 New aircraft due to a lack of spare parts. Without maintenance, the company “S Sevin” will have no choice but to stop these aircraft in 2026.

Energy sources

Europe’s commercial influence over Russia appears to be greater when it comes to Moscow’s exports, most of which are hydrocarbons. In this field, the Kremlin himself harmed by bound gas shipments to the European Union in 2022.

Since then, the Europeans have been making efforts to diversify the sources of energy supply, establish an infrastructure to import liquefied natural gas, and accelerate the pace of expansion of renewable energy. There is no reason that prevents them from continuing these efforts, which will be crowned with the banning of the European Union all Russian hydrocarbons imports starting in 2027.

Trump may not be keen to encourage the re -control of energy relations between the European Union and Russia by reviving Russian gas shipments. The reason for this is simple, which is that Washington and Moscow are competing in the field of gas supply to the European Union. Over the past three years, the United States has become the main supplier of the LNG of the European Union, as its imports represent nearly half of the bloc’s imports.

If Russia resumes the export of gas through pipelines to Europe, the demand for American liquefied natural gas will decrease, and Russian energy companies are competing directly with American companies in the field of LNG, as Russia is now the second largest supplier for the LNG of the European Union, and there is no doubt that Moscow aspires to reach the first position.

Europe’s energy influence extends over Russia to include oil shipments as well. The group of seven countries and the European Union have put a maximum end of the price of Russian oil exports at $ 60 a barrel, which is shipped with the help of insurance companies or shipping lines in the European Union, or other members of the group of seven countries.

The possible exit of the United States from this maximum price will be easy for the rest of the group’s countries, especially the European Union, and for this reason Russian oil tankers are currently avoiding and destinations in the group of seven countries and the European Union, and oil tankers often use these Russian ports in the Baltic Sea.

This means that it needs to pass through the European Union’s marine suffocation points, which gives the Union a influence to apply the price ceiling, for example, by stipulating that all ships crossing the European Union’s lights get evidence of appropriate (Western) insurance, which is difficult for Russian ships to provide.

Frozen origins

To restart their operations in Russia, Western companies will need to reach financial channels, another field of influence of the European Union, as American banks have never been a president in Russia. The experience of sanctions on Iran indicates that persuading American financiers to resume their actions in Russia will require a great effort. In the case of Iran, American banks feared the return of sanctions even after mitigating them.

As for the major western banks, the few capable of facilitating the return of Western companies to Russia, they are of European descent, such as the Austrian Bank of Rivies, which still has huge operations in Russia. If the European Union wants to tighten sanctions, it can restrict the ability of its banks to do business in Russia.

Finally, what about the frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank? Theoretically, the European Union is the main player here. Most of these reserves are reserved in the Belgian «Eurocker», and it seems that more than 60% of them are eurished in euros, a conservative estimate based on rare data available.

Moreover, the European Commission runs a $ 50 billion loan, which the Group of Seven Group gave him to Ukraine using the benefits of the benefits of Russian frozen assets. However, there is a problem, which is that Moscow has removed these reserves in anticipation of not recovering, and this does not mean that Moscow does not care about it, but it is more likely not a priority for the Kremlin, which means that the European Union cannot use it as a means of pressure.

And if Europe is able to survive, it will have tremendous punitive influence on Moscow, which is the trade relations and the presence of the private sector, and they are two profound papers that Washington cannot play with.

This also does not mean that US sanctions, especially measures that restrict Moscow’s ability to put its external debt in the US financial markets and access to American energy technology to maintain oil and gas production, are useless. However, for the Kremlin, it is unlikely that the lifting of US sanctions alone is sufficient, and this means that Trump cannot give Putin everything he wants in Ukraine negotiations, at least not in the sanctions, and the European Union may be the real player here, which gives Trump at least one reason to involve the bloc in negotiations on a possible end to the Russian -Ukrainian war.

About “Fourn Police”

. The European Union, the largest commercial partner of Moscow, provided it with nearly 40% of its imports and almost the same percentage of its exports.