World Trade Organization: The uncertainty surrounding commercial policy threatens to obstruct global growth
Geneva, April 16/ WAM/ The World Trade Organization confirmed that the temporary cessation of customs duties reduces the contraction of trade, but the strong risk of decline still exists and warned that in the current circumstances it is likely that the volume of global trade in goods is 0.2% in 2025.
In a report on global trade, the organization expected that the decline be particularly severe in North America, to decrease exports by 12.6 % and said that there are still severe reactionary risks, including the application of mutual customs duties and broader repercussions of political uncertainty, which may lead to a more severe decrease of 1.5 % in the global trade of goods that will harm the lowest growth -based countries.
The report predicted the growth of the volume of services trade by 4.0% in 2025, that is, less by one percentage point than expected, while the volume of global trade in goods is expected to decrease by 0.2% in light of the current circumstances, i.e. less than three percentage points, which was expected in light of the low customs tariffs scenario.
The report issued by the World Trade Organization is based on the set of customs definitions until April 14 that trade may shrink more to -1.5% in 2025 if the situation deteriorates and indicated that the services trade, although it is not subject to customs tariffs directly, is also expected to be affected negatively.
Nguzi Okonjo Ayoula, Director General of the organization, expressed her deep concern about the uncertainty surrounding commercial policy, including what is happening between the United States and China and said that the recent calm of customs tensions has temporarily reduced some pressure on global trade.
She said that the continuous uncertainty threatens to obstruct global growth with severe negative consequences for the world, especially the most vulnerable economies, and stressed that in the face of this crisis, an unprecedented opportunity is available to members of the World Trade Organization to give vitality to the organization, enhance equal opportunities, simplify the decision -making process, and adapt the organization’s agreements to fit better with the current global reality.
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