From 2.8% to 3.0% .. The IMF raises its expectations for global growth in 2025

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund raised its expectations for the growth of the global economy for the year 2025 to 3.0% instead of 2.8% in its previous report issued in April, driven by an unexpected increase in commercial activity as a result of companies ’speed to avoid the new customs duties announced by Donald Trump.

Despite this improvement, the fund still warns of a slowdown in growth during the second half of the year, with the possibility that global trade activity will decline during the year 2026 as a result of the pre -storage in the markets.

Factors to raise economic expectations

Pierre-Olivier Guransha, the economist in the IMF, stressed that “the pre-emptive efforts of commercial companies to avoid fees temporarily supported economic activity,” but warned that “this activity may decline later as the need for storage declines.”

The report pointed out that the global economy “remained constant in its appearance, but the components of the activity indicate unrest resulting from commercial policy, not to real economic durability.”

Expected growth rates for the year 2024 and 2025

2024: Global growth reached 3.3%.

2025: The Foundation expected a growth of 3.0% (instead of 2.8%).

2026: Growth is threatened with decline if commercial policies are tightened again.

The impact of Trump’s policies on the global economy

Since his return to the White House, Trump has imposed 10% customs duties on most of the United States trading partners, and the actual fees in America increased to 17.3% compared to 3.5% globally.

But some of the drawings were postponed until August, which contributed to temporarily calming the markets.

In the event of the collapse of commercial agreements, the global product is expected to decrease by 0.3% during the next year.

The effect of fees on inflation

The IMF expects the new customs duties a gradual increase in prices within the United States, especially during the second half of 2025.

While in other countries, these fees may lead to a “shock in the show” that limits inflationary pressures, as a result of the decline in demand for affected products.

Global inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% this year, but it will remain higher than the target levels, especially in America.

2024