"Investment guarantee": $4 trillion, the expected value of Arab GDP in 2026

Kuwait, 1st December / WAM / The Arab Corporation for the Guarantee of Investment and Export Credit (Dhaman) revealed that the value of the Arab gross domestic product will rise by 1.7% to reach about 3.8 trillion dollars in 2025, despite the geopolitical challenges witnessed by the region, with its continued geographical concentration in the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, and Iraq, with a share of approximately 73% of the total region.

Today, on the occasion of the issuance of the fourth quarterly bulletin “Investment Guarantee” for the year 2025, the Foundation explained that the performance expectations for the Arab economy were generally positive for the year 2026, with an expected increase of 5.6% in the value of the Arab output to reach about 4 trillion dollars, driven by the likely growth in the domestic product in 19 Arab countries, including 8 oil-based economies alone that contribute more than 70% of the total Arab output, in light of cautious optimism for a decrease in the value of the Arab economy. The intensity of unrest and conflicts in the region, the improvement of the economic situation and the rise in returns from structural reforms, in addition to the increase in the value of the region’s exports of goods and services.

The Foundation stated that the International Monetary Fund’s estimates indicate a variation in the performance of Arab economic indicators during the year 2025, affected by the decline in average global oil prices and the continued geopolitical risks witnessed by the region, in addition to the increase in economic and social challenges.

These indicators included an increase in the volume of Arab output according to purchasing power parity at a rate of 6.1%, exceeding 9.8 trillion dollars, with expectations that it will continue to rise to exceed 10 trillion dollars in 2026.

She indicated a slight decline in the average per capita output in the Arab countries in 2025 at a rate of 0.3% to reach $7,806 during the year 2025, compared to an increase according to purchasing power parity at a rate of 4% to exceed $20,000, with the continued great disparity between the oil-producing countries and the lowest-income countries.

The indicators include a decline in the unemployment rate in the region to 9.4% during the year 2025, coinciding with its decline in all countries of the region, with expectations that it will continue to decline to 9.2% in 2026. In addition, in conjunction with a decline in inflation rates in 16 Arab countries during 2025, the average rate of consumer price inflation in the Arab region declined to about 10.3% in 2025, with expectations that it will continue to decline to reach 8.1% in the year. 2026.

The indicators included an improvement in the annual average exchange rate of 7 Arab currencies against the dollar during the year 2025, and included the currencies of Tunisia, Qatar, the Emirates, Morocco, Algeria, Djibouti, and Syria. The average exchange rate of the currencies of 6 Arab countries also witnessed stability, while the average exchange rate of the currencies of 7 other countries witnessed a decline against the dollar during the same year.

The value of the total investments of 14 Arab countries increased by 5.2% to reach about 864 billion dollars in 2025, representing 27.3% of the domestic product of those countries, with expectations that these investments will rise by 5.4% to more than 910 billion dollars in 2026.

Arab performance also declined in terms of debt indicators, as the ratio of government debt to GDP rose to 46.2% in 2025, with expectations that this ratio will continue to rise to more than 47% in 2026. The external debt ratio of Arab countries also rose to 54.6% of the total Arab GDP during the same year, while it is expected to witness a slight increase in 2026 to reach 54.7%.

Arab foreign exchange reserves increased by 3.4% to about $1.2 trillion, enough to cover Arab imports of goods and services for about 5.6 months on an annual average, with expectations that these reserves will rise by 2.5% in 2026, and the months of import coverage will rise slightly to reach 5.7 months during the same year.

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