The American threat to seize Greenland represents a strategic test for Europe

The island of Greenland is not a remote region, but rather it has great importance for the whole of Europe, as it is an overseas territory of the European Union, and enjoys special rights. Greenlanders are citizens of the Danish Kingdom, and therefore EU citizens, with freedom of movement rights. The island has great strategic value: militarily as a major region in the Arctic, economically because of its raw materials, and geopolitically in the context of new sea routes opened by climate change. Who controls Greenland influences a fundamental area of ​​European security policy.

So, how should Europeans respond to US provocation and the threat of invasion? The first option is to wait and see, hoping that American institutions and the Constitution will limit foreign policy adventures. This strategy is convenient, but fraught with risks, as it indicates a strategic vacuum and calls for the creation of facts on the ground. Since American forces are already present in Greenland (at the Pitovik base), it would be easy in principle for the United States to isolate the legitimately elected government in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, and exploit the island’s natural resources as it sees fit.

A second, bolder option for Europe would be covert and substantive cooperation with Denmark and the Greenland government. This may include sending additional European military forces to Nuuk to support existing structures, while strengthening them with air and sea defense.

Such capabilities would send a political signal, but would also be objectively necessary to secure Greenland against a variety of threats at a time when the Arctic region is becoming increasingly contested.

France, Germany and the Scandinavian countries share a common assessment of Greenland’s importance. French President Emmanuel Macron visited Nouk in June 2025 and reaffirmed his “firm support” for the island’s territorial integrity.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb took a similar position. Although the German government initially hesitated, major European countries finally issued a joint statement in support of Greenland.

However, the shared assessment of Greenland’s importance and Denmark’s moral support does not yet constitute a common strategy for ensuring Greenland’s security. European Union countries must realize that a strategy that is not accompanied by close military cooperation is ineffective.

And President Donald Trump is right about one thing: Denmark alone cannot guarantee Greenland’s security. Security can only be achieved through organized European cooperation, and the tools for this have been in place for a long time. Thanks to their ability to deploy rapidly, EU countries have a suitable military tool at their disposal, and its use would not be a provocative act, but rather a sign of strategic maturity and European unity.

European leaders must develop a strategy in close cooperation with the government in Nok. As Alexander Stubb said: “No one decides on behalf of Greenland and Denmark except Greenland and Denmark themselves.”

Of course, the United States could annex Greenland, despite the deployment of Danish and European forces. However, a greater European military presence would significantly increase the political and military costs for the United States. These high costs would also make it likely that domestic political controls in the United States would prevent such a “foolish” move.

The European signal of power may also lead to serious negotiations with the United States. The US base in Greenland could then be expanded, cooperatively, in the interest of transatlantic security. During the Cold War, there were approximately 10,000 American troops in Greenland based on the 1951 Defense Treaty, which still obligates the United States and Denmark to defend Greenland. By acting aggressively, Europe will also change the domestic political calculations in the United States and thus define a new transatlantic relationship. It will also enable the people of the island to choose what is appropriate in the future.

Europe must act now, in cooperation with Copenhagen and Nuuk, in a calm, decisive and coordinated manner. Expressions of solidarity must be translated into a joint military strategy. A European show of strength could lead to greater cooperation with the United States in Greenland.

*Guntram Wolff

*Senior Fellow at the Bruegel Institute

About the “Brugel” website

. EU countries must realize that a strategy that is not accompanied by close military cooperation is ineffective.