“Stormy Monday” scenarios: The Iran war is reshaping global markets
The United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on Saturday, targeting its main leaders, which led to the Middle East sliding into a new war whose repercussions extend to global markets, while trading platforms prepare for… "A windy Monday" Upon its return to a new trading week.
Iran is an oil producer, and controls maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass, while the conflict may limit the entry of oil to the global market and raise prices.
The price of Brent crude on Friday reached about $73 per barrel, and four trade sources reported on Saturday that some major oil companies have suspended shipments of crude oil and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz due to… Attacks.
High oil prices
William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at… "Capital Economics"Even if the conflict is contained, the price of Brent crude could rise to about $80, the highest level during the 12-day war in Iran in June last year.
He said in a note that a prolonged conflict affecting supplies could cause a rise in Oil prices to around $100, which could add 0.6-0.7 percentage points to global inflation.
Pressures on Gulf Markets
Trading on Middle Eastern stock exchanges, especially the Gulf region, this week will provide an initial indication of investor sentiment. Although these markets are closely linked to oil prices, the escalation of conflict could negatively impact their economies.
Ryan Lemand, CEO and co-founder of New Vision Wealth Management, said: "I think the markets will see a decline if these hostilities continue for a longer period,” he added. Gulf stocks may decline in varying proportions depending on the size of the conflict."
Volatility in stocks and currencies
The conflict between the United States and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other is likely to exacerbate volatility in global stock markets, which have already witnessed sharp fluctuations this year due to US tariffs and a sharp decline in technology stocks.
The market volatility index (VIX) rose by 30% this year, while the implied US bond volatility index rose by 15%.
Analysts believe that currency markets will not be immune. These fluctuations, where indicated "Australian Commonwealth Association" Until the The dollardeclined by about 1% during the June 2025 war, but this decline was short-lived, as the US currency returned to rising after three or four days.
Commonwealth Association analysts said in a note issued a week ago: "Under current circumstances, the magnitude of the decline will depend on the expected scale and duration of the conflict. If the conflict is prolonged and disrupts oil supplies, we expect the US dollar to rise against most currencies except the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The United States is one of the largest energy exporters, and therefore will benefit from the rise in oil and gas prices resulting from interruptions in oil supplies."
Safe assets shine, Bitcoin fails
Analysts’ forecasts also indicate that investors will once again embrace Gold, which has achieved a record rise of 22% so far in 2026, and silver, which is also witnessing a notable rise.
This conflict may also contribute to increasing demand for US Treasury bonds, the yields of which have declined in the past few weeks.
As for digital currencies, led by Bitcoin, they are the only exception, according to analysts, as they are no longer seen as a safe haven, after the value of Bitcoin fell by 2% on Saturday, losing more than a quarter. Its value in two months.
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