IMF: Few countries will survive the economic repercussions of the Iran war

Caution The International Monetary Fund ensures that only a few countries will survive Iran.

The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gorinchas, said: Before the war, we were preparing to raise our growth expectations, but instead they were lowered.

He added: "Our base forecast is based on a relatively short struggle with temporary energy market disruption that will resolve next year"

Under these circumstances, the Fund expected that overall growth would be limited to 3.1%, compared to the previous forecast in January, which amounted to 3.3%.

If the war continues for a long period, in the worst scenario, it expects growth of 2%, which is a low and rare rate at the global level.

The largest energy crisis in history

Although the current energy crisis is the largest in history, Gourinchas pointed out during a press conference that its impact on the economy is still The impact of the oil crisis of the 1970s was less severe, mainly because the economy today is much less dependent on oil than it was then.

He explained that there are now many other energy sources, and the global economy has become more efficient in meeting its energy needs to generate wealth, which explains the economy’s steadfastness in the face of the current crisis.

The United States is expected to be among the countries least affected economically by the war.
The Fund expected growth of 2.3% in the United States in 2026, that is, 0.1 points lower. A percentage of its previous forecast in January.

Higher inflation expectations

Given the rise in oil prices, the Fund also raised its forecasts for inflation, which had been slowing.

The Fund currently expects prices to rise at a rate of 4.4% globally, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous forecast in January.

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