America is in decline due to Trump’s policies

In late January, as US President Donald Trump completed his first year in the White House, a group of researchers in Beijing prepared a report in which they expressed their thanks to the US President. Their thank you was sarcastic, and was not an endorsement of Trump’s policy, but the sentiment behind it was sincere.

“Thank you, President Trump, for alienating America’s traditional allies,” the researchers wrote. Thank you for showing the world that China is more trustworthy and stable. Thank you for putting economic pressure on China, thus pushing it to innovate. Thank you, above all, for clarifying that America is in “the last days of its empire,” as they put it.

This report, prepared by Wang Wen and colleagues at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, represented the most strident side of Chinese debates about America.

Wang, a moderate nationalist, is known for his strong language, but he is not an anomaly. Many senior Chinese intellectuals and officials believe that American power is in final decline. This was expressed most decisively in the saying of Chinese President Xi Jinping: “The East rises and the West sets.” He was diplomatic enough not to explicitly say it was China versus America.

Symptoms of decline

Chinese state media has long preferred to shine a harsh light on America’s failures, a not-so-subtle way to convince the Chinese people that their situation is better.

However, it would be a mistake to question the sincerity of the Chinese view that America’s best days are over.

This worldview, partly rooted in Marxist thought’s suspicion of capitalism, gained momentum in China after the 2008 global financial crisis. Trump’s two election victories only reinforced this conviction, as it was seen as evidence that American democracy, too, was flawed.

In a recent research paper, researchers Jonathan Chen and Allie Mathias from the Brookings Institution monitored the number of times phrases describing America’s decline appear in Chinese writings.

They conclude that such analysis has been a constant element of Chinese discourse for nearly two decades. But since Trump returned to power, there has been an upward trend, as he is seen as both a symptom of and an accelerant of America’s decline due to his policies.

Problems

There are some ideas that are repeated in Chinese thinking about what America is suffering from. There are economic problems such as America’s financial expansion, the hollowing out of its manufacturing capabilities, and the rise in public debt. There are also military problems: the burden and impossibility of playing the role of the world’s policeman. Finally, there is what underpins all of this: the political flaws of a highly polarized system, unable to maintain consensus, and now gravitating towards self-defeating populism.

The question is: How does China respond to its assessment of America’s declining influence? One possibility is that leaders will choose to act more aggressively, seeing more space available to them as America’s influence diminishes.

There is some evidence of this, especially with regard to China’s practices sometimes against America’s allies, from Japan to Canada, and in its military position regarding Taiwan.

However, its actions often fall into gray areas, and are not even close to the boldness of Russia’s attempts. Therefore, the most important observation is that China is acting with relative caution at the present time, despite its diagnosis of America’s situation.

“Domination anxiety”

The concept of “hegemonic anxiety,” which represents a basic criterion for many Chinese researchers, helps explain this caution. They see America as a diminishing hegemon that is deeply concerned about losing influence, therefore vulnerable to misbehavior, and on its way to decline.

Researchers use this as a framework to understand Trump’s decision to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

From this perspective, America is determined to create crises and display its power in a desperate attempt to preserve its sovereignty, according to researchers. The implication for China is that it must be careful. As Zhong Sheng, a pseudonym that expresses the party’s official foreign policy views, wrote in a commentary published by the People’s Daily late last month: “America is accelerating its decline toward a world where the power of the strong prevails.”

Relative shift

There is another element in the Chinese view of America’s decline that calls for caution. Objectively, all of this is true, as America’s share of the global economy has stabilized over the past few decades, while China’s has expanded rapidly.

But China’s more realistic thinkers point out that this relative shift does not constitute an absolute loss, and, as Tsinghua University professor Da Wei has said, hegemony is different from power.

America’s leadership of international institutions has disintegrated, not least because America has deliberately undermined it. However, there is no doubt that America is still the most powerful country in the world in terms of economic and military influence.

Wang Jisi of Peking University also urged not to exaggerate. Despite all the obvious political problems America suffers from, these problems have not limited its economic or technological developments. Moreover, he pointed out that political polarization does not usually last in America, as the country has a long track record of regaining its balance.

When the Chinese President meets his American counterpart in Beijing in mid-May, he will not be affected by the display of American military power. Instead, he will see Trump as the leader of a faded force, full of dangers.

About “The Economist”

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A Chinese warned of the dangers of conflict

Whether China views America as a shrinking but unpredictable hegemon, or as a weak power that still has great capacity to cause harm and gain new gains thanks to artificial intelligence, the conclusion is the same: China should not take reckless actions that might anger it. If America’s decline is almost a unanimous opinion in Beijing, this feeling of caution is strongly present in the Chinese view and evaluation of the United States. It is a reassuring outcome for China to reach, because such caution would help reduce the risk of conflict between two great powers.

. Researchers thanked Trump, considering that the economic pressure he exerted on China pushed it to innovate.

. Beijing is still acting with relative caution at the present time, despite its diagnosis of America’s situation.