Before the 2026 World Cup final… the percentage of Messi and Lamine Gamal winning the Ballon d’Or

The struggle for the Ballon d’Or this year has reached its peak, with the approaching final of the 23rd edition of the 2026 World Cup, between the national teams of Spain and Argentina, scheduled for Sunday.

Frenchman Ousmane Dembélé, the Paris Saint-Germain star, won the award last year, after winning the Champions League title.

While the 2026 World Cup title will largely decide the identity of the Ballon d’Or winner this year.

The legend Lionel Messi stands out as the most prominent candidate to win the Ballon d’Or in 2026, as expectations indicate that he has the highest winning percentage among the competitors this year.

The Argentine star led his country to the World Cup final for the second consecutive edition, after winning the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

According to the Polymarket Sports website, the probability of Messi winning a record ninth Ballon d’Or is 31.7%, which puts him ahead of the rest of the competitors after his country’s exciting victory over England in the semi-finals of the World Cup.

The noose is tightening on Messi, his rival in the 2026 World Cup final, the young Spanish star Lamine Gamal, whose percentage of winning the Ballon d’Or is 30.9%.

While the chances of English star Harry Kane in winning the Ballon d’Or declined after failing to reach the final of the 2026 World Cup with his country, the chance of winning the award is 13.5%. The chances of last year’s winner Ousmane Dembélé also declined to 3.1%.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup final, next Sunday, between the national teams of Argentina and Spain, will be largely decisive in determining the identity of the winner of the Golden Ball.

Messi winning the title gives him a golden opportunity to win the Ballon d’Or for the ninth time in his history, while Lamine Jamal will try to snatch the world title and the award for the first time after finishing second last year.