Trump’s position on the Ukraine war changed “tactical”

After failing to persuade his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to sit at the negotiating table, it appears that US President Donald Trump has begun to reconsider his position on the war in Ukraine, heading towards a gradual ignorance of the conflict, similar to the undeclared withdrawal from the Ukrainian issue.

After more than eight months have passed since the beginning of his second term, Trump made conflicting statements about Ukraine, which reflected a mysterious approach similar to his volatility of his predecessor Joe Biden. In a statement he recently made, Trump said that Ukraine, with the support of NATO weapons, “NATO”, and thanks to the courage of its forces, is able to force Russia to withdraw from the lands it occupied since the war began three and a half years ago.

Despite this enthusiastic dialect, the atmosphere in the meetings of the United Nations General Assembly in New York revealed a real decline in Trump’s position towards the Ukrainian conflict, which was clear from his pursuit of US responsibility in this file, especially after his failure to play the active mediator between Moscow and Kiev.

Anger and emotion

Some of Trump’s former assistants say that the man is known for his fluctuations, and his external political stances often come from feelings of anger and emotion, more than it comes from an accurate strategic analysis, which makes it difficult to predict whether his last position on Ukraine’s ability to victory reflects a real conviction, or just a passing reaction.

Even his closest adviser, they expressed their surprise at the conviction that Trump expressed that Ukraine, and after years of war and destruction, suddenly capable of restoring 20% ​​of its Russia -controlled territory. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also the National Security Adviser, has repeated the previous administration’s position that “the war in Ukraine cannot be resolved militarily, but rather must end through negotiations.”

While the Trump administration declined to provide official clarifications on its new strategy towards Ukraine, one of the senior White House officials conveyed an opinion that the previous Biden administration had only a single option, which is Ukraine’s financial and military support without a clear roof, without real negotiations with Russia. He pointed out that Trump is open to the imposition of customs duties against Moscow, not traditional sanctions, provided that Europe agrees to stop the purchase of Russian energy.

Tactical position

Analysts believe that this change in Trump’s position is not as much as it is tactical. According to the executive director of the new US Security Center, Richard Fontaine, Trump’s positions are always swinging between the two parties to the opposite, from complete skepticism in Ukraine’s ability to exaggerate the perception of its full victory.

Fontaine considered that Trump has not put forward any new actual initiatives, neither in American policy towards the war, nor in additional military support to Kev, not even in the form of a road to a ceasefire or the start of peace negotiations.

This mystery and fluctuation in Trump’s position did not pass unnoticed by the United States’ allies. British Prime Minister Kiir Starmer, during a press conference with Trump in London a week before the international meetings, expressed his conviction that Putin only responds to a strong pressure led by Washington, considering that Trump’s standing at the site of “neutrality” will not lead to a change in the course of war.

Sched criticism

For his part, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell issued a statement in which he welcomed Trump’s apparent support for Ukraine, but he soon criticized his administration, noting that the statements of officials in the Ministry of Defense about reducing military exercises and aid to countries affected by Russian influence are undermined the presidential efforts to end the war. He said that the continued blame for the “NATO” allies or the freezing of security cooperation with Ukraine could weaken the American role in supporting Kiev.

Although McConnell was keen not to go into the details, he seemed to refer to the statements of Defense Minister Beit Higseth and his senior aides. This has prompted some experts to urge to focus on what the administration spends, instead of what the president says, in order to measure American support for Ukraine.

Subsidy

The former official of the file of Russia and Ukraine in the US Department of Defense, Laura Cooper, confirmed that American support for Ukraine witnessed a remarkable decline compared to the early years of the war, as Europe has bearing the greatest burden in providing security support, while it is no longer clear how this support can lead to a final settlement of the conflict in light of the decline in the American role.

“Today, the US share of aid has disappeared,” she said. The Europeans alone can help keep the Ukrainians fight, but it is not clear how they can really help them to achieve peace without the help of the United States. ”

Political victory

For his part, Ukrainian President Folodimir Zellinski seemed optimistic about the transformation of Trump’s tone, describing it as “a change in the rules of the game.” For Zelinski, Trump’s stopping pressure to waive land for peace is a political victory, especially in light of the escalation of tension with Russia and the continuation of the war.

Zelinski had a good reason for the celebration, as he resulted in his long efforts to restore the friend of Trump, after their famous confrontation in the Oval Office last February. Moreover, Trump, who announced his annoyance from Putin, was pressuring the Russian president to make concessions, not Zelinski.

But that does not satisfy Moscow, as the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that the perception that Ukraine is able to win militarily “completely wrong”, stressing in statements to “Russia Radio”, that Russia is not “a tiger of paper”, but a “bear”, in reference to its strength and stability in the face of Western sanctions and pressure.

war of attrition

After leaving Trump New York, it turned out that he left Zellinski in the same position that he had, in an urgent need for money, technology, intelligence support and military equipment, in order to continue a war of attrition approaching its duration of the period in which America participated in World War II.

In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Zelinski pointed out that the conflict with Russia has become more complicated, due to the collapse of the international regime and its weak institutions, in an implicit criticism of the United Nations itself. He said that real security is not made by international law or decisions, but “friends and weapons”, as he put it. On the New York Times

The first defense line

In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Ukrainian President Folodimir Zellinski warned of the expansion of the Russian danger, pointing to the incidents of Russian running aircraft that penetrated the Polish atmosphere, to confirm that Ukraine is not only a victim, but is the “first line in defending Europe”.

Trump assistants believe that his political positions often come from feelings of anger and emotion, more than they are issued by an accurate strategic analysis.

• The Ukrainian president seemed optimistic about the transformation of Trump’s tone, describing it as “a change in the rules of the game.”