Economic forecasts for the fourth quarter: Gold is the “biggest winner” amid global uncertainty

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Economic forecasts for the fourth quarter: Gold is the “biggest winner” amid global uncertainty

Analysis is expected "Saxo Bank" For global economies, the markets will face a state of uncertainty during the fourth quarter of 2025, as The global economy is currently in many ambiguous and contradictory situations.

The global scene

During the first three quarters of 2025, Chinese markets witnessed a boom driven by a local technological revolution aimed at independence from the West, while major European stocks achieved superior performance in US dollar terms compared to their American counterparts, and emerging markets also outperformed… Other In US dollars.

As for the American level, there is great ambiguity, as Goldis up about 40% this year, on track for its strongest annual gains since 1979, when the energy crisis caused a global wave of inflation. The current gains, which also included silver and platinum, reflect the widespread concern among investors about the global economy, especially the American economy and its increasing debt burden.

He maintains "Saxo Bank" With his positive long-term outlook towards gold, with expectations of further rises due to the weakness of the dollar, he cut interest rates in America.
Add to this, inflows of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025, which have already exceeded net outflows over the past two years, reflecting renewed interest in the precious metal.

A slowdown in central bank purchases may constitute A limited obstacle with the rise in the value of its gold reserves, but this is offset by a stronger motive, which is the fear of the erosion of the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the resulting loosening of inflationary expectations and questions about the sustainability of public finances, a scenario that may push gold to exceed the near target of $4,000 per ounce. "Saxo Bank" With its bearish view of the US dollar for the remainder of the year, given the large US fiscal deficit at 6–7% of GDP even without a recession.

As for the Japanese yen, which fell sharply during the third quarter, the analysis assumes that the markets will stabilize thanks to slow growth, which suggests a broad corrective rise in the yen.

In On the other hand, the analysis is conservative towards the euro due to the political turmoil in France, and the slowness of German financial policy, which is affected by policies "Grand Alliance" Slow.

America…the best and the worst together

John Hardy, head of global macroeconomic strategies at "Saxo Bank"The economic situation in the United States is extremely complicated, while Washington is living "The worst of times"given the historically low confidence levels of consumer sentiment, the stock market is surviving "Best times" For investors and major companies, especially those related to artificial intelligence.

US markets recorded historic peaks in the third quarter, accompanied by record valuations, not only compared to profits, but even to sales. The value of index companies "Standard & Poor’s 500" More than 3.3 times its sales in the third quarter, compared to just 1.5 times at the market peak in 2007.

Will AI save America from a recession?

However, the analysis finds that the risks of a recession in the United States are increasing, although if a recession does not occur during the fourth quarter, it may be the result of a temporary recovery in demand as policy uncertainty subsides. Trade.
On the other hand, changes in AI-related investments may be much larger than others, and are already a key driver of US growth this year.

Europe… Anxiety returns again

It is now clear that the EU did not negotiate seriously with the Trump administration and has actually accepted 15% tariffs without retaliation so far. This position is due to Europe’s fear of greater escalation in the absence of an alternative plan and its excessive dependence on the American market, in addition to its increasing caution towards China.

Europe’s fragility is also increasing with the continuation of the war in Ukraine, and the weakness of its defense capacity compared to Russia, which makes it keen to maintain the NATO umbrella temporarily.

France today is considered the weakest link politically, With more than 50% of sovereign debt owned by foreigners (especially Germans), making it vulnerable to potential shocks in bond markets. Although there is a growing sense of urgency, Europe only acts when crises are clearly visible.