Russia raises fears of war against Europe that is “unprepared” to defend itself

When a group of defense experts met in Whitehall, the seat of the British government, last month to discuss how prepared the UK and its allies were for a war they believed might break out in the next few years, their conclusion was very bleak: they were not prepared.

The attendees at the conference, hosted by the Royal United Services Institute in London, were not warmongers, but rather experienced and knowledgeable.

The conference included current and former members of the armed forces, government and NATO officials, researchers, and defense industry professionals, whose thinking is based on the widely accepted intelligence assessment that Russia is preparing for the possibility of direct conflict with Europe.

During the conference, attendees stressed that the only way to prevent this is to ensure Europe’s victory in the event of a war. Increased investment in European defence, which suffers from chronic underfunding, is essential, but security experts are increasingly warning of the need for a radical change in thinking at all levels.

They noted that it is time for European governments to engage their citizens and make clear to them that the time for Europe to ignore the threat of war is over.

Professor Sam Green, a specialist in Russian politics at King’s College in London, and an expert on the resilience of democracy, says: “I think there is an indication that societies are ready for this kind of discussion, but I think that governments are not yet confident in this discussion.”

Expert consensus is growing that Russia is actually waging a hybrid war on the West through sabotage operations, and sowing chaos and disinformation in domestic political debates.

They point to strong evidence, including repeated incursions of Russian aircraft and drones into NATO airspace, and the jamming of the Global Positioning System in the Baltic states, not to mention disinformation campaigns and sabotage attacks on critical infrastructure in several countries, which are usually attributed to Russian intelligence services. Russia has consistently denied any involvement in these attacks.

Green said, “These attacks have already changed the opinions of many in Europe, although some politicians are still hesitant to explicitly describe them as a hybrid war.”

Baltic concerns

Although Moscow has not launched any direct attacks on NATO allies in Europe, which experts attribute in part to Russia’s realization that it cannot defeat the alliance with its current capabilities, there are increasing indications that this situation may change in the future. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned earlier this year that Russia may be ready to use military force against NATO within five years.

German Foreign Minister Johan Vadevoll echoed this warning in a speech last month, saying that “German intelligence services believe that Moscow still keeps the option of war against NATO open, at least by 2029 at the latest.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in early December that “although Russia does not plan to go to war with Europe, if Europe suddenly wants to go to war with us and starts, we are ready now.”

Most of the Baltic states agree that a possible attack could occur within three years. When researchers at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs studied warnings and forecasts issued by various officials regarding Russia’s readiness and desire to wage war against NATO, they found that the most frequently mentioned years were 2027 and 2028.

As a result of this threat, NATO developed contingency plans to defend against any possible Russian attack on the Baltic states.

Earlier this year, the British government asked three prominent experts – former Secretary-General of NATO, George Robertson, former commander of the Joint Forces Command, General Richard Barnes, and former director of the US National Security Council, Fiona Hill – to conduct a strategic review of British defense.

The three experts presented a guide that includes the necessary steps to prepare for war.

Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute conference, Barrons said: “The UK must reconsider the resilience of its infrastructure, build up its armed forces, reserves and civil defence, and invest in the health service, industry and economy, to allow a rapid transition to war.”

Barons added, “Although the United Kingdom is moving in the right direction, if it continues at the current pace, it will take 10 years to become ready for war.”

Fruits of peace

Many European capitals, including London, have spent the past few decades without thinking twice about defence. Because there have been no major direct military conflicts on the continent since 1945, Europe has enjoyed its longest continuous period of peace in centuries.

These decades of relative calm have yielded major peace dividends, as successive governments have been able to spend money on social welfare rather than defense, making the lives of ordinary European citizens more comfortable, while relying on the United States, the world’s largest military spender, to intervene when needed.

Then came two harsh shocks: the first was Donald Trump assuming the presidency of the United States, who made it clear to NATO allies that they could no longer rely heavily on the United States, and the second was the Russian-Ukrainian war.

This radical change in the status quo prompted most European NATO member states to increase defense spending. According to NATO data, 31 out of 32 members are expected to meet the goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense this year, compared to only six members in 2021, that is, a year before the Ukrainian war.

Iceland, a founding member of NATO and the only country not expected to achieve this goal, does not have its own armed forces, but rather contributes financially, with civilian employees, and with air defense and surveillance systems.

Last June, NATO members agreed to raise the target to 5% of GDP by 2035. However, many analysts doubt the feasibility of this target, especially since most European countries are facing financial pressures, even before considering a significant increase in their defense spending.

Of course, most politicians do not want to explain to voters the need to reallocate some resources, and perhaps the need to increase the number of personnel in the reserve or regular forces.

Multiple opinion polls, conducted by the Eurobarometer Center to measure public opinion throughout the European Union this year, showed that an overwhelming majority of Europeans, amounting to 78%, are concerned about the European Union’s defense and security during the next five years. A third of participants believe that defense should be among the Union’s spending priorities.

However, the Chief of Staff of the French Armed Forces, General Fabien Mandon, sparked widespread discontent last month, when he warned the French people of the need for the country to prepare for possible losses in the future, as a result of “Russian aggression,” saying that “France must accept the loss of its sons in order to protect our identity.”

“The willingness of people across Europe to understand the threat and participate in confronting it varies greatly,” said Robin Potter, a research associate at the Chatham House think tank in the United Kingdom.

Sweden and Finland updated their guidance for their citizens on how to survive war last year, and distributed “booklets” that include instructions on how to prepare for communications outages, power outages, and severe weather conditions. Several countries, including Lithuania, Latvia, and Sweden, have reintroduced compulsory conscription over the past decade, while other countries, such as Germany, Poland, Belgium, Romania, and Bulgaria, have launched voluntary military training programs for their citizens. About “CNN”

. An overwhelming majority of Europeans, 78%, are concerned about the European Union’s defense and security over the next five years.

. Decades of relative calm yielded major peace dividends, as governments were able to spend money on social welfare, rather than defence, making the lives of European citizens more comfortable.