China is enhancing its nuclear readiness… and is approaching the “doctrine” of launch on warning

China’s rapid expansion in establishing missile silos, developing early warning capabilities, and adopting an operational concept that approaches launching missiles upon receiving warning indicates a fundamental shift in its nuclear doctrine. This trend reflects a clear transition from a relatively limited policy of deterrence to a nuclear situation characterized by a high degree of readiness, which may reshape the equations of strategic stability in sensitive areas of tension, starting from the Taiwan Strait and reaching its strategic relations with the United States.

This month, the Pentagon issued its annual report on Chinese military capabilities, which stated that Beijing likely possesses more than 100 DF-31 solid-fuel ballistic missiles.

These missiles operate from three newly constructed launch silo sites located near the Chinese border with Mongolia, indicating an orderly and deliberate expansion of China’s nuclear infrastructure.

This development represents a decisive shift in the scale of preparedness, the nature of operations, and the logic of China’s nuclear deterrence. This shift is closely linked to Beijing’s quest to adopt a strategy based on early warning and counterattack, a strategy that is close in content to the concept of launching missiles immediately upon receiving a warning of an imminent attack.

A qualitative transformation

In this context, in December 2024, the Rocket Force of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army carried out successive and rapid launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles from a training center. According to the American report, this activity is in line with training on the procedures required to launch several missiles from different silos in conditions of time constraints, reflecting practical preparation for rapid response scenarios.

The loading operations of these silos support parallel investments in early warning systems, including infrared satellites, in addition to large long-range radars that operate in an integrated manner. This system, when operated in a coordinated manner, would give the Chinese leadership the ability to monitor any potential strike in its early stages, and issue orders to respond before the enemy warheads explode.

Although the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal is estimated at approximately 600 nuclear warheads during the year 2024, the Pentagon report confirms that the expansion of the establishment of silos does not reflect a mere numerical increase in nuclear warheads, as much as it indicates a qualitative shift in the nature of deterrence, as this expansion provides greater speed in response to any expected attack, enhances the ability of missiles to survive, and provides more effective response options.

Together, these developments indicate that China is moving toward gradually abandoning the model of limited nuclear deterrence, adopting instead a strategy designed to deal with rapidly escalating nuclear crises, which will lead to a profound change in the dynamics of regional and international strategic stability.

Improved version

According to a report issued by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists magazine in March 2025, the DF-31 missile is a solid-fueled, land-transportable intercontinental ballistic missile that provides China with a reliable ability to carry out a survivable second nuclear strike. The report indicates that this missile, which first entered service in the mid-2000s, has an estimated range of about 7,200 kilometers, and is believed to carry a nuclear warhead. One with a destructive force of up to hundreds of kilotons.

However, the DF-31 missile is no longer included in the latest US assessments, as it is believed to be undergoing a gradual withdrawal from service or being replaced by more advanced versions that provide longer range and greater operational flexibility.

According to the Chinese Odin database, it is likely that this missile has been developed into an improved version known as the DF-31BG, which has the ability to carry multiple independent warheads.

In a report issued by the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) in July 2025, American experts David Logan and Philip Saunders indicated that the new version, the DF-31BG, will give China the ability to carry out nuclear attacks after detecting an imminent strike, but before it actually occurs. The range of this missile also ranges between 11.2 thousand kilometers and 13 thousand kilometers, allowing it to target most of the territory of the United States.

Logan and Saunders believe that these developments do not officially cancel China’s declared policy of not starting to use nuclear weapons, as the response remains conditional on monitoring a potential attack, but this advanced version practically expands the scope of this policy, by reducing the decision-making time, increasing the risks of miscalculation or false warnings, and the possibility of requiring prior authorization of launch authority, which may weaken the traditional political controls associated with this policy.

Missile defense

In parallel with modernizing its offensive capabilities, China is also working to develop its capabilities in the field of missile defense. Writer Alex Richter said, in an article recently published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists magazine, that China’s development of missile defense capabilities at low and medium levels is closely linked to enabling a comprehensive strategic missile defense, and not only to facilitating a rapid nuclear response.

Richter explained that the effective interception of long-range ballistic missiles during the mid-course phase requires an advanced early warning infrastructure, which includes infrared satellites and long-range radars, which are the same basic components of missile defense systems. By building this infrastructure, China is laying the foundation for a multi-layered missile defense system. However, China’s possession of a reliable missile defense system may, according to Richter, undermine the concept of mutual vulnerability and push opponents to adopt the worst possible scenarios, which may contribute to accelerating the arms race. Especially with the United States seeking to develop means capable of penetrating any future Chinese missile shield.

Serious repercussions

These transformations carry serious repercussions in the event of a crisis erupting in the Taiwan Strait. According to a report issued by the Atlantic Council in November 2023, China’s expansion in the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles strengthens its confidence in its ability to carry out a successful second nuclear strike, which gives it greater margin to bear nuclear risks in the context of a potential conflict over Taiwan, with the aim of deterring American intervention and controlling the pace of escalation.

The report indicates that, in times of crises, China may resort to raising the level of its nuclear readiness, issuing indirect nuclear threats, or showing a hardening of its nuclear stance to enhance deterrence, even if this entails uncalculated risks of escalation. About “Asia Times”

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Fundamental challenges

The Chinese nuclear modernization program faces fundamental challenges, most notably the limited Chinese reserves of highly enriched uranium. According to the International Commission on Fissile Materials, this reserve amounted to about 14 tons in May 2025, which is a modest number compared to the United States reserve estimated at about 481 tons in 2024, and Russia’s reserve of non-radioactive highly enriched uranium, which amounted to about 680 tons in the same year.

This limited reserve may impose restrictions on the number of nuclear warheads that China can produce, which may prompt it to compensate for this by improving the accuracy of its launch systems, or developing alternative concepts for delivering nuclear weapons, including partial orbital bombardment systems, in an effort to enhance the effectiveness of its strategic deterrent.

. The shift in China’s nuclear doctrine may reshape strategic stability equations in sensitive areas of tension.

. China is moving towards gradually abandoning the model of limited nuclear deterrence.