The Pakistani province of Balochistan is an area of ​​American-Chinese competition for mineral extraction

The Balochistan region has been described for most of Pakistan’s modern history as risky, rife with political conflicts, and faltering in terms of development.

Its enormous mineral wealth, which has long been pointed out by geological studies and political debates, has not yet been utilized as sustainable and effective international investments.

This has resulted in a persistent gap between promises and reality, entrenching the global perception of the region as a risky border region, rather than a destination for long-term economic investments.

But this picture is beginning to change. There are new waves of Chinese and Pakistani investments, focusing on the long-awaited “Rico Deck” project, indicating that major investors are re-evaluating the size of the mineral resources buried in “Balochistan”, and the strategic logic of continuing to invest in them despite the state of instability and threats posed by armed groups.

Strong forecasts for interim mineral exports, worth $5 billion, over the next decade do not hide the structural challenges facing the region, but they indicate growing confidence that Pakistan’s advanced security measures, infrastructure planning, and international partnerships are better positioned than before to support long-term resource development.

In this context, the “Rico Deck” project goes beyond being a mere mining project, as it becomes a test of the ability of economic potential and geopolitical necessity to change long-prevalent perceptions about security risks.

The reality of investment

Balochistan has long been portrayed as troubled, but large-scale investment in minerals reveals a more complex story. Chinese companies and major Pakistani business groups have obtained new concessions to explore for copper, gold and associated minerals, expanding the scope of participation to include projects other than the Rico Diq project of the Canadian company Barrick Mining, and suggesting the imminent formation of a broader mining corridor rather than one isolated project.

In fact, logistical planning is already progressing. The Pakistan International Bulk Terminal at Port Qasim has been contracted to handle mineral exports worth more than five billion dollars in phases, while the Rico Deck project alone is expected to produce about $2.7 billion annually in its first phase.

Production could reach between 800 thousand and one million tons of metals annually, once production begins in the period between 2028 and 2029. For an economy suffering from weak exports and recurring crises in the balance of payments, a project of this size will have positive effects that go beyond the mining sector to include national economic health in general.

The ownership arrangements reflect a thoughtful political and financial balance, and Barrick owns 50% of the project, while the remaining share is divided between the Pakistani federal government and the Balochistan provincial government, combining foreign capital, sovereign participation, and risk sharing.

The planned spending of about $150 million on specialized port infrastructure, within a broader development framework of approximately $7.7 billion, indicates a long-term commitment extending for decades, and not just speculative investment income.

Rarely does capital of this magnitude flow into environments deemed unsustainable by investors, and the increasingly expanding network of concessions, logistics and infrastructure indicates market confidence in Pakistan’s long-term stability.

The “Rico Deck” project stands out as a geopolitical arena, and the announced US financial support of about $1.3 billion, linked to vital mineral supply chains, indicates Washington’s interest in securing the copper and gold necessary for electricity, renewable energy, and defense industries.

At the same time, regional investments and partnerships linked to China continue to deepen, and the convergence of competing interests reflects patterns similar to those witnessed in the markets for “cobalt” in Congo, copper in Zambia, and “lithium” in Chile, where strategic minerals attract intense global competition.

This mineral momentum comes within a much broader economic framework between China and Pakistan. Within the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a pioneering project within the Belt and Road Initiative, China has pledged investments exceeding $62 billion in the energy, transportation, and industrial infrastructure sectors.

The development of Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea constitutes a fundamental pillar of this strategy, as it provides China with shorter trade routes to the Middle East, while consolidating Pakistan’s position as a regional logistics center. The volume of bilateral trade currently amounts to between 25 billion and 27 billion dollars annually, as China is Pakistan’s largest trading partner and one of its most important long-term investors.

Security risks

But security threats remain as volatile as ever as Pakistan seeks to attract global financing for its mining sector, and for investors the key question now is whether these risks can be reasonably contained.

Experiences in politically unstable mining areas in Africa and Latin America show that high-value ore deposits are capable of sustaining production when supported by multi-level security, flexible transportation, and strong financial incentives.

Pakistan appears to be moving cautiously in this direction through specialized protection forces, expanding intelligence coordination, and deepening security cooperation with key partners, especially China.

But security alone does not guarantee sustainability, and there must be a fair distribution of resources and the residents of the region feel that they have benefited from these investments.

Without effective local integration, job creation, revenue sharing, infrastructure development, and building institutional trust, the risks of large-scale mining operations exacerbate the injustices that threaten them. It is true that mining contributed to the stability of previously “fragile” areas, but only when the surrounding communities experienced a tangible benefit instead of deprivation and marginalization.

Regardless of the macroeconomic outlook, expectations within Balochistan itself remain closely tied to whether large-scale mining will translate into actual local benefit.

Local officials and community representatives constantly point to jobs, revenue shares, roads, water provision, education, and health care as criteria by which projects like Rico Deck are ultimately judged.

Strategic test

The Pakistani leadership believes that the global acceleration in the field of minerals represents an opportunity and a strategic test at the same time, and can enhance export success, attract capital for continued exploration, and integrate the country more deeply into global supply chains linking Central Asia, the Gulf, and the Indo-Pacific region. As for failure, it may deepen investors’ doubts not only towards “Balochistan”, but towards Pakistan in general, and it is clear that the future of “Balochistan” will no longer be determined within the borders of Pakistan alone, as competition intensifies. Global efforts to focus on vital minerals, external forces focus on copper and gold in the region.

The crucial question remains, not whether these resources will be exploited, but rather who will determine the conditions for operating the mines, and whether local communities will share in their wealth?

For the time being, capital continues to flow despite the instability, and this insistence alone indicates a shift in outlook, as “Balochistan” is no longer viewed merely as an unstable border region, but rather as a strategic arena whose importance is increasing in a way that is difficult to ignore. About “Asia Times”

• There is a persistent gap between promises and reality, which has entrenched a global view of the region as a risky border region, rather than a destination for long-term economic investments.

• There are new waves of Chinese and Pakistani investments, focusing on the long-awaited “Rico Deck” project, indicating that major investors are reevaluating the amount of mineral wealth buried in “Balochistan.”