Putin is “not hasty” to enter peace negotiations with Ukraine

US President Donald Trump announced that he would stop the war in Ukraine, although it will be in more than one day, as he used to say in his promises.

But there is a problem in this regard, as Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be not in his matter, in order to make concessions and accept a deal that is not compatible with his conditions.

As the third anniversary of this war approaches, it appears that the Russian president believes that time is working alongside him, and that he has an advantage that surpasses both Ukraine and its supporters from Western countries.

The correct view is that the Russian president’s approach, during his presence in power for about a quarter of a century, is summarized in showing stubborn confidence, regardless of the objective reality, and this makes it difficult to read his ideas, especially since the nature of decision -making within the Kremlin has become more mysterious.

Feeling optimism

However, the news that it reaches from the battlefield must feed a feeling of optimism, as Russia in the battle front has strong momentum, and its forces are mobilized around the strategic city of Boucrovsk in Ukraine, while the Ukrainian lines extended to collapse. Ukraine is very sure of Trump’s future political and material support and Europe.

Even if the political will exists, the Western defensive industrial base will struggle to feed Ukraine with weapons, with levels that have been preserved so far. Meanwhile, President Folodimir Zellinski appears to be fragile at home, and his government began looking for a kind of rest in fighting.

On the other hand, the Russian forces do not show signs of the possibility of their offensive forces, although the few additional areas seized by the Russian forces in eastern Ukraine during the past year cost a large number of victims. The rate of killing of human energy cannot continue forever, but in the short term, Russia will renew human energy in the army from the reserve forces. On the contrary, Ukraine with the lowest population is strongly struggling to renew its forces.

Generous compensation

The Kremlin lured Russian men to engage in the army by providing generous compensation. There are other options available, such as the electronic summons system to issue electronic calls, and at the same time, there are 12,000 elite forces in North Korea who arrived to help Russia to overcome the Ukrainian forces that entered the Corsak region in Russia.

And the Kremlin can bear great losses on the front, and according to the Russian accounts, Ukraine is gradually losing this grinding and draining war, before it suddenly collapsed.

There is also the economic front, as the accumulated weight of Western sanctions worked to hand over the economy during the time of this Russian war, but the technocrats in Russia were able to admire the consequences of feverish economy, high inflation, lack of labor, and export decline. At some point, dealing with these consequences will become more difficult.

But during the next year, at least, or more, Putin may depend on the resources needed to pay the cost of the war before the economy is involved in real problems. Given the fear that Putin cultivates in Russian society and among the elites, he is not concerned about the popular demands to end the war or conspiracies aimed at isolating it.

Russian oil revenues

Putin may also be confident of the global image, and from Trump above all, and for this it will not disturb the latter’s threats to impose new sanctions on Russia and protect the American drilling that harms Russian oil revenues, the Kremlin. And if Russia is affected by such measures at all, it will take a long time before its effect becomes tangible.

The Kremlin’s feeling that time beside him appears to be the basis for understanding his considerations, and his most comprehensive ideas.

The Russian leadership will feel that there is no real pressure, forcing it to go to the negotiating table, unless it will lead in terms of action, to the surrender of Ukraine. In fact, Putin is actually working on forming the diplomatic field, indicating that he is a rational man, while he blames everyone except for himself for the absurd destruction that this war brought.

Putin is trying to flirt with Trump by chanting the speech of the US President that Russia would never invade Ukraine, if Trump was not removed from his post, due to the “stolen” elections, and thus indicates that he is ready for negotiations with Trump, but not with Ukrainian President Zellinski , Or Europe.

Putin’s demands include recognition of the annexation of Ukrainian regions and the protection of the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine, by imposing Russia to its opinion on Ukraine’s policy, and it also wants to put an end to Western sanctions.

Freezing front lines

Above all, Putin wants to put an end to the Western security measures, and to ensure that NATO “NATO” will not accept the annexation of Ukraine as a member of the “Alliance”, and that the presence of European peacekeepers, after reaching the ceasefire through negotiations or reaching a settlement , It will be unacceptable, so that the presence of these forces along the (seam line), would complicate Russia’s option, and forced it to re -occupy Ukraine, if Putin decides to do so.

And if Trump agrees to the essence of Russia’s demands, the Kremlin can agree to a ceasefire and freeze the current front lines, and may agree to a deal, as long as Trump is still in power. This will make the American president boast of his credibility as (the maker of deals and peace).

There is no doubt, the accounts of the Russians indicate that Ukraine without Western security guarantees would become an invested country, free from population and under the danger of the explosion. Of course, the Ukrainians will feel terrified of such a deal, which they will resist imposed on them.

But if Putin does not succeed in achieving his goal in negotiations, he seems confident that Russia is able to continue fighting for another year, at least and get what you want through the battlefield.

According to Putin’s accounts, Ukraine lacks the time or resources necessary to resist indefinitely. Putin’s mistake can be proven, but this will require more Ukrainian blood and western weapons, and perhaps most important than anything else, more time that Trump’s patience may be depleted regarding an agreement. About “Economist”

. Putin believes that time is working alongside him and that it has an advantage that surpasses Ukraine and its supporters from Western countries.

. The Kremlin can agree to a ceasefire and freeze the current front lines if Trump agrees to the essence of Russia’s demands.