The Myanmar earthquake puts the ruling military regime in a difficult position

The earthquake, which finally struck Myanmar in the midst of the civil war, led to the situation of the military regime led by General Min Aung Hulang in a very difficult situation. Will this natural catastrophe that struck the capital Naibidao and another cities such as Singing and Mandalay would lead to the collapse of the military regime at the same time?

The rebel groups announced a ceasefire in the earthquake affected areas to allow aid to reach the affected.

On March 30, the military government reported that it had recovered 2928 bodies from under the rubble, while the number of missing persons reached 139.

However, the credibility of these numbers remain in doubt, and there may be attempts to reduce the impact of the earthquake politically, especially since its strength has reached 7.7 on the Richter scale.

Despite the announcement of the ceasefire and the call of the military government for international aid that started to reach several countries, it was reported that the regime continued its air and artillery shelling during the weekend, including the bombing of a hospital in Bunagune, an area controlled by the Arakan army rebels near the capital of Rakhine State.

These attacks should be seen amid an unprecedented catastrophe as an indication of the weakness of the military regime, not its strength. When civil conflicts coincide with natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and hurricanes, this reveals greater weaknesses of the military council, which appears in the history of this region.

“to delegate”

The concept of “delegating heaven” is part of the “Confucian” and Buddhist traditions, and means that the legitimacy of the ruler is linked to his ability to rule effectively and ensure the welfare of his people.

In ancient China, rulers were believed to lose their mandate if they failed to respond appropriately to natural disasters, which leads to their fall.

Despite the secular position and the national system of the Myanmar Army, this concept is still vital among the population who adhere to myths.

Natural disasters often reveal the failure of authoritarian regimes, as happened in Myanmar in 2008 after Hurricane “Narges”, which destroyed the country and killed about 130,000 people.

The military regime at the time rejected humanitarian aid for fear of international violations and potential threats, which turned the disaster into a tragedy of man -making, and this is similar to what is happening now, as the military government repeats its mistakes in dealing with relief efforts after the last earthquake.

International humanitarian aid contributes to increasing regime control, but transferring funds and resources into the hands of corrupt military officers and their commercial partners as well as in the past increases the erosion of the system credibility.

Rebel groups

The roads leading to Mandalay and Nepidao, and the main political centers in the country were severely affected by the last flood and the current earthquake.

The collapse of the infrastructure is a strategic strengthening of resistance armed groups, such as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Arakan Army, the Myanmar Democratic Alliance Army, and the Tang Army for National Liberation.

The history of the rebel groups in Southeast Asia shows that when the supply lines of government forces are interrupted, this leads to their weakness, as was the case in the Vietnam War, where a “Ho Chi Road” formed a lifeline for the “Viet Kong” forces that managed to outperform a more powerful army. On Asia Times

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The illusion of stability

The authoritarian regimes maintain a front of stability even in light of the presence of internal cracks, as the Military Council in Myanmar tried to show its control through military offers and economic partnerships with countries such as China and Russia.

However, the flow of foreign humanitarian aid, which is often done through independent organizations, threatens this illusion, as the presence of these organizations increases international control over the system.

According to researcher Mary Kalhan, the flow of relief workers and humanitarian organizations can increase the detection of human rights violations. Moreover, the aid that reaches the affected population through local organizations related to armed resistance or sympathetic may contribute to undermining the authority of the Military Council and its position in the battlefield.

. The history of the rebel groups in Southeast Asia shows that when government forces supply lines are cut off, this leads to their weakness.