Warning from a new wave of landing to the S& P 500 index despite the steadfastness of the American economy

Analysts expected an additional decrease that may reach 19% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, even if there is no economic recession, according to the US Business Insider network.
Analysts pointed out that this possible decline is due to the behavior of investors who are rushing to buy at the lowest levels, hoping to catch up with any wave of rise, despite the continued risks of the trade war and their impact on corporate profits in the coming months. This analysis is based on a long -term study of the US stock market declines over 100 years.

Excess assessments in American stocks

The price double usually decreases to profitability in the periods of sale that is not associated with stagnation to 15 times, but the post -Kofid pandemic stage has witnessed the continuation of investors in paying an evaluation bonus of 3%. Therefore, analysts believe that this minimal evaluation this time is 18 times the profits.
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According to “Greg Putel”, the financial analyst at BNB Pariba, the application of a profit multiplier by 18 times means that the indicator may immediately settle at 4,600 points.
Although the index has already decreased to this level in recent sales, Puttel believes that the current height does not take into account the future weakness resulting from customs duties, which may pave the way for re -testing the previous bottoms.

What is the worst scenario?

In the most optimistic scenario, BNB Pariba expects the index to 5800 points, but other scenarios, whether medium or negative, indicate more losses “even without assuming negative scenarios.”
In the event of an actual stagnation, Pottel suggested that the index decrease by another 35%.
He warned that the next stage of the decline may be more slow and complicated than the rapid decline wave that the market witnessed in April, saying: “The next moves may be less severe but more difficult for investors.”
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Blinking due to Trump customs duties

The customs tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump are still ongoing, and investors are awaiting more clear data on their impact on inflation and the labor market.
The non -agricultural job report issued in April showed that the American economy added 177 thousand jobs, exceeding the expectations of 135,000, which gave a positive boost to the index, which increased by 1.7% on Friday after the report was issued.
But analysts believe that this data does not provide a complete picture, as Tiffany Wilding, the economist of Pimco, said: “We do not believe that the report reveals a lot about the future expectations of the markets.”
She added that consumers may not feel the impact of high prices except in May and beyond, due to the accumulation of stocks before the fees increased.

Renewed warnings from major financial institutions

This vision is consistent with what Goldman Sachs, who indicated that although the uncertainty about politics is at its peak, the market is still threatened with more declines if signs appear on the failure of the American economy.
“We believe that the risks are still tending towards the possibilities of a new decline in stocks, and we call for adding tools against these declines,” the bank’s economic researcher, Vicky Zhang, wrote.
Although President Trump may retract his 10% customs definitions on most countries, the state of ambiguity will continue unless actual steps are taken, which causes investors to monitor wage data, inflation, and profits in the coming months.
If this data comes without market expectations, it may extend the fluctuations in the American stock market during 2025, and major investment banks such as BNB Pariba and Goldman Sachs warned.