France faces a problem in choosing the presidential candidates for the 2027 elections

The last five or six -six presidential elections in France witnessed surprises and fluctuations in events, but every time the main structure of the race was expected two years before its date, but the situation is currently no longer, with the presidential race for the year 2027, which is witnessing fierce competition. There are several reasons for changing the situation, the most important of which is a general situation of dissatisfaction with politics, and the decrease in the old division between the left and the right, and the weakness of the current President Emmanuel Macron, who cannot run again nor influence the choice of his successor, in addition to the state of global economic and political uncertainty that the administration of US President Donald Trump.

Moreover, the choice of candidates is not particularly confirmed this time, as the Macron Monotonia has a sharp division.

Until last month, the competition was limited to Macron’s succession to two of his former ministers: the leader of the right -wing “Horizons” party, Edward Philip, and the leader of the “Renaissance” party to which Macron belongs, Gabriel Atal.

But now, both of them differed with the president, and they are trying to win the progressive popular base, supporting Europe, and supporting the business sector, while distancing themselves at the same time from an unpopular president with a volatile record.

Opinion polls indicate that Philip is clearly leading the electoral race in this battle over the leadership of the center, as it obtained an support rate ranging between 21% and 24% in the first round of the elections, while the Attal rate in opinion polls ranged between 14% and 15%.

Triple conflict

Meanwhile, the militant Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retilo, is threatening to transform the competition into a triple conflict, as he is as president of the former Central Republican Party, “Digoli”, who appears to be sure that he will become the candidate of his party, putting three of the leaders of the four parties in the ruling coalition as competitors on the succession of Macron, which is an explosive situation in nature.

The French president has lost almost all his local influence since his early parliamentary elections last year, and he does not have an influence to influence this crucial race. Moreover, it is unlikely that both Philip and Richilo will carry a campaign to “save Macrona”, but rather to bury it and prepare something closer to the socially conservative, economically conservative and liberal center and the least enthusiastic towards Europe for former presidents Jacques Chirac or Nicolas Sarkozy.

left

On the left, the theater appears more crowded, and the hard -line left candidate, Jean -Luc Millennishon, appears between 13% and 15% in early opinion polls for the first round despite his position as “the most hated man” in French policy, with a negative rate of more than 70%. As is always the case, his undeclared presence will make it difficult for any other left candidate to appear.

However, the strongest early competitor on the moderate left, supporting Europe, is a member of the European Parliament, Rafael Glucman, who suddenly performed well in the European elections for the year 2024, and currently gets a rate of between 10% and 11% in opinion polls, and has excluded both Glucman and Melingon to participate in any left -wing elections.

The Socialist Party

The Socialist Party, which was previously strong, is still divided between its radical and reformist wings supporting Europe. The first Secretary of the party, Olivier Four, who has a leftist tendency, and kept his seat with difficulty for the fourth time, hopes that the presidential party candidate for 2027.

However, at least two of the emerging figures of the moderate wing in the party – the head of the southwestern Oksatani region, Carroll Dega, and the mayor of Saint Owen on the outskirts of Paris, Karim Pomran – are planned to oppose him.

So in general, it seems that there will be up to eight left -wing candidates in the presidential race by the end of next year, and for the extreme right, the presence in the lead does not necessarily mean winning as well.

Opposition

Party polls are still strong for the National Rally Party, despite the court’s ruling issued last March to prevent opposition leader Marine Le Pen from running for the position for five years.

All recent opinion polls show that Luban, next to her deputy, Jordan Bardela, has more than 30% of the support of the first round, and if their nomination is confirmed in April 2027, either of them will be in a strong position to win the run -off, but this is still not guaranteed.

Luban and Bardela have a very high negative support rates, which ranged between 47% and 49%, which makes it very difficult for them to collect 50% of the necessary votes to win, as the relations between them deteriorated since the court’s ruling, Le Pen, who still considers herself a candidate of the National Assembly until the resumption of next year, from the hints of the Bardela camp and the media, that the most fortunate presidential candidate is now To his youth and his lack of experience on several occasions. However, so far, these tensions have not underestimated their popularity in opinion polls. About «Politico»

. Macron has almost his local influence since the early parliamentary elections, and does not have an influence to influence the presidential race.

. As for the extreme right, the presence in the lead does not necessarily mean winning the presidency, in what appears that there will be 8 left -wing candidates.