Expectations that military aid to Ukraine will reach its lowest level in 2025

Yesterday, the German Kiel Research Institute expected that military aid to Ukraine would reach its lowest levels during the year 2025, in light of the inability of European countries, which currently provide the bulk of it, to compensate for the cessation of American aid.

The head of the institute’s team, Christoph Trebisch, said in a statement, “According to the data available until last October, Europe was not able to send aid with the same momentum as in the first half of 2025.” He added: “If this slowdown continues, 2025 will be the year that witnesses the lowest level of new aid to Ukraine” since 2022.

The Kiehl Institute is concerned with tracking the military, financial and humanitarian aid that has been pledged to Ukraine since the Russian war on February 24, 2022, and before the decision of US President Donald Trump to stop aid upon his return to the White House in early 2025. Washington was providing more than half of that aid. The institute noted that while European countries initially succeeded in compensating for this, their aid has declined since the beginning of the summer and during the first 10 months of 2025. Ukraine has been allocated military aid worth 32.5 billion euros, most of which was provided by Europe.

Within two months, Ukraine’s allies will need to allocate more than five billion euros to reach the lowest annual level allocated in 2022 (37.6 billion euros), and more than nine billion euros to reach the annual average of 41.6 billion euros between 2022 and 2024.